Hard–easy effect
The hard–easy effect is a cognitive bias that occurs when, based on a specific level of difficulty of a given task, subjective judgments do not accurately reflect the true difficulty of that task. This manifests as a tendency to overestimate the probability of success in difficult tasks, and to underestimate the probability of success in easy tasks.[1][2][3]
Example
An experimental group was given a questionnaire containing general-knowledge questions such as "Who was born first, Aristotle or Buddha?" or "Was the zipper invented before or after 1920?". The subjects filled in the answers they believed to be correct and rated how sure they were of them. The results showed subjects tend to be underconfident on their answers to questions designated by the experimenters to be easy, and overconfident on their answers to questions designated hard.[4]
See also
References
- ↑ Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20(2), 159–183. doi:10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0
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Fajfar, Pablo. "An analysis of calibration; the hard-easy effect and the emotional disappointment of overconfident behavior: Some experimental evidences" Retrieved August 17, 2013, from http://www.ucema.edu.ar/conferencias/download/2009/Paper_Fajfar_Gurman.pdf
Moore, Don & Healy, Paul J. "The Trouble with Overconfidence" Retrieved August 17, 2013, from http://www.cbdr.cmu.edu/papers/pdfs/cdr_576.pdf
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