Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum
Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum has been ongoing in the months since the announcement of a referendum, and polls on the general principle of Britain's membership of the European Union have been carried out for a number of years. The referendum on EU membership will take place on 23 June 2016.
There is a contrast between opinion polls of voters in general, which tend to be close, and polls of business leaders, lawyers, and scientists. In all three groups, clear majorities see the UK's membership of the EU as beneficial.
Contents
Analysis
Demographics
Younger voters tend to support remaining in the EU (but are less likely to vote[1]) whereas older people tend to support leaving. There is no significant difference in attitudes between the genders. High-skilled workers and university graduates are most likely to favour staying in the EU while the low-skilled and those with no qualifications are most likely to favour leaving.[2] White voters are evenly split, and all ethnic minority groups lean towards backing Remain, but registration is lower and turnout could be up to 25% lower in this demographic.[3] Support for remaining in the EU is significantly higher in Scotland than it is in Great Britain as a whole, with Scottish voters saying they are more likely to vote.[4]
Polling methods
The way voters are polled is known to affect the outcome. Telephone polls have consistently found more support for remaining in the EU than online polls.[5] YouGov, which uses online polling, has criticised telephone polls because they "have too high a percentage of graduates", skewing the results.[6] Ipsos Mori and ComRes, and Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov, have said telephone polls are more reliable.[7][8][9] ICM has said "as good a guess as any is that the right answer lies somewhere in between".[10] A joint study by Populus and Number Cruncher Politics in March 2016 concluded that telephone polls were likely to better reflect the state of public opinion on the issue.[11]
Standard polling on EU membership
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The tables show polling on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. Polling generally weights the sample to be nationally representative. Polls are usually conducted within Great Britain, with Northern Ireland and Gibraltar normally omitted from the sample.[12] This has historically been the case in UK opinion polling because Northern Ireland has a different set of political parties from the rest of the UK, reflecting the political divide between unionism and nationalism or republicanism.[12] Similarly, Gibraltar is not included in standard polls because it has its own local legislature and does not take part in UK parliamentary elections, although Gibraltar does take part in elections to the European Parliament and will take part in the referendum.
The percentages who "would not vote" or who refused to answer are not shown below, although some pollsters have excluded these in any case.
2016
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Undecided | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30–31 May | 41% | 41% | 13% | 1,735 | YouGov | Online | ||
27–29 May | 42% | 45% | 15% | 1,004 | ICM | Telephone | Paired telephone/online polls by otherwise identical methodology | |
44% | 47% | 9% | 2,052 | Online | ||||
25–29 May | 51% | 46% | 3% | 800 | ORB | Telephone | ||
27 May | Purdah begins: local and central government are prohibited from making announcements in a way that could affect the outcome of the referendum.[13][14] | |||||||
26 May | Office for National Statistics publishes its last quarterly report on migration before the referendum.[15] | |||||||
20–25 May | 44% | 45% | 12% | 1,638 | BMG Research | Online | ||
24 May | 44% | 38% | 18% | 1,013 | Survation | Telephone | ||
23–24 May | 41% | 41% | 13% | 1,756 | YouGov | Online | ||
20–22 May | 45% | 45% | 10% | 2,003 | ICM | Online | ||
18–22 May | 55% | 42% | 3% | 800 | ORB | Telephone | Poll was said to reflect the private polling conducted for the government[17] | |
17–19 May | 44% | 40% | 14% | 2,008 | Opinium | Online | ||
16–17 May | 44% | 40% | 12% | 1,648 | YouGov | Online | ||
14–17 May | 52% | 41% | 7% | 1,000 | ComRes | Telephone | ||
14–16 May | 55% | 37% | 5% | 1,002 | Ipsos MORI | Telephone | ||
13–15 May | 47% | 39% | 14% | 1,002 | ICM | Telephone | Paired telephone/online polls by otherwise identical methodology | |
43% | 47% | 10% | 2,048 | Online | ||||
11–15 May | 55% | 40% | 5% | 800 | ORB | Telephone | ||
10–12 May | 38% | 41% | 21% | 1,222 | TNS | Online | ||
29 Apr–12 May | 36% | 39% | 22% | 996 | YouGov | Telephone | ||
29 Apr–12 May | 38% | 40% | 16% | 1,973 | YouGov | Online | ||
6–8 May | 44% | 46% | 11% | 2,005 | ICM | Online | ||
4–6 May | 42% | 40% | 13% | 3,378 | YouGov | Online | Remainder "won't vote" | |
29 Apr–3 May | 44% | 45% | 11% | 2,040 | ICM | Online | ||
27–29 Apr | 43% | 46% | 11% | 2,029 | ICM | Online | ||
26–29 Apr | 42% | 41% | 14% | 2,005 | Opinium | Online | 24% of respondents preferred not to say; the stated percentages are of the other 76% | |
27–29 Apr | 49% | 51% | N/A | 2,000 | ORB | Online | ||
26–28 Apr | 39% | 36% | 26% | 1,221 | TNS | Online | ||
25–26 Apr | 41% | 42% | 13% | 1,650 | YouGov | Online | Remainder "won't vote" | |
25–26 Apr | 45% | 38% | 17% | 1,003 | Survation | Telephone | ||
22–26 Apr | 43% | 45% | 13% | 2,001 | BMG Research | Online | ||
22–24 Apr | 44% | 46% | 10% | 2,001 | ICM | Online | ||
20–24 Apr | 51% | 43% | 6% | 800 | ORB | Telephone | ||
22 April | President of the United States Barack Obama comments on the referendum debate, supporting the United Kingdom remaining in the European Union.[18] | |||||||
16–19 Apr | 51% | 40% | 9% | 1,002 | ComRes | Telephone | ||
16–18 Apr | 49% | 39% | 8% | 1,026 | Ipsos MORI | Telephone | ||
15–17 May | 48% | 41% | 11% | 1,003 | ICM | Telephone | Paired telephone/online polls by otherwise identical methodology | |
43% | 44% | 13% | 2,008 | Online | ||||
13–17 Apr | 53% | 41% | 6% | 800 | ORB | Telephone | ||
15 April | The EU referendum campaign officially begins.[19] | |||||||
12–14 Apr | 38% | 34% | 28% | 1,198 | TNS | Online | ||
12–14 Apr | 40% | 39% | 16% | 3,371 | YouGov | Online | Remainder "won't vote" | |
13 April | The Electoral Commission chooses Vote Leave and Britain Stronger in Europe as the official Leave and Remain campaigns.[20][21] | |||||||
11–12 Apr | 39% | 39% | 17% | 1,693 | YouGov | Online | Remainder "won't vote" | |
7–11 Apr | 35% | 35% | 30% | 1,198 | TNS | Online | ||
8–10 Apr | 45% | 38% | 17% | 1,002 | ComRes | Telephone | ||
8–10 Apr | 42% | 45% | 12% | 2,030 | ICM | Online | ||
7 April | HM Government starts sending a pro-Remain pamphlet to 27 million UK households and begins a pro-Remain digital advertising campaign.[22][23] | |||||||
6–7 Apr | 40% | 38% | 16% | 1,612 | YouGov | Online | Remainder "won't vote" | |
29 Mar–4 Apr | 39% | 38% | 18% | 3,754 | YouGov | Online | Remainder "won't vote" | |
1–3 Apr | 44% | 43% | 13% | 2,007 | ICM | Online | ||
29 Mar–3 Apr | 51% | 44% | 5% | 800 | ORB | Telephone | ||
29 Mar–1 Apr | 39% | 43% | 18% | 1,966 | Opinium | Online | ||
24–29 Mar | 35% | 35% | 30% | 1,193 | TNS | Online | ||
24–29 Mar | 41% | 45% | 14% | 1,518 | BMG Research | Online | Includes Northern Ireland | |
24–28 Mar | 51% | 49% | N/A | 2,002 | ORB | Online | ||
22–24 Mar | 45% | 43% | 12% | 1,970 | ICM | Online | Original poll is no longer available on ICM Unlimted | |
19–22 Mar | 49% | 41% | 10% | 1,023 | Ipsos MORI | Telephone | ||
17–22 Mar | 40% | 37% | 19% | 1,688 | YouGov | Online | Remainder "won't vote" | |
18–20 Mar | 48% | 41% | 11% | 1,002 | ComRes | Telephone | ||
18–20 Mar | 41% | 43% | 17% | 2,000 | ICM | Online | ||
17–19 Mar | 46% | 35% | 19% | 1,006 | Survation | Telephone | Includes Northern Ireland | |
11–14 Mar | 47% | 49% | 4% | 823 | ORB | Telephone | ||
11–13 Mar | 43% | 41% | 16% | 2,031 | ICM | Online | ||
4–11 Mar | 45% | 40% | 16% | 2,282 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research | Online | ||
2–10 Mar | 48% | 45% | 7% | 4,047 | Populus/Number Cruncher Politics | Online | ||
4–6 Mar | 49% | 35% | 15% | 966 | Populus/Number Cruncher Politics | Telephone | ||
4–6 Mar | 40% | 41% | 19% | 2,051 | ICM | Online | ||
2–3 Mar | 40% | 37% | 18% | 1,695 | YouGov | Online | ||
1–2 Mar | 40% | 35% | 19% | 1,705 | YouGov | Online | ||
29 Feb–1 Mar | 39% | 37% | 19% | 2,233 | YouGov | Online | ||
26–29 Feb | 41% | 41% | 18% | 2,003 | ICM | Online | ||
26–28 Feb | 39% | 45% | 18% | 2,071 | Populus/Number Cruncher Politics | Online | ||
26–28 Feb | 48% | 37% | 15% | 1,002 | Populus/Number Cruncher Politics | Telephone | ||
24–25 Feb | 48% | 52% | N/A | 2,014 | ORB | Online | ||
21–23 Feb | 37% | 38% | 25% | 3,482 | YouGov | Online | ||
20 Feb | David Cameron announces the date of UK's In/Out EU referendum after an EU summit in Brussels.[24] | |||||||
17–23 Feb | 38% | 36% | 25% | 1,517 | BMG Research | Online | Includes Northern Ireland | |
19–22 Feb | 42% | 40% | 17% | 2,021 | ICM | Online | ||
19–22 Feb | 51% | 39% | 10% | 1,000 | ComRes | Telephone | ||
13–20 Feb | 45% | 32% | 23% | 938 | Survation | Telephone | ||
18–19 Feb | 40% | 41% | 19% | 1,033 | Opinium | Online | Conducted before the conclusion of the negotiations; exact time frame was not communicated | |
13–16 Feb | 54% | 36% | 10% | 497 | Ipsos MORI | Telephone | ||
11–15 Feb | 36% | 39% | 25% | 1,079 | TNS | Online | ||
12–14 Feb | 43% | 39% | 18% | 2,001 | ICM | Online | Original poll is no longer available on ICM Unlimted | |
11–14 Feb | 49% | 41% | 10% | 1,105 | ComRes | Telephone | ||
5–7 Feb | 41% | 42% | 17% | 2,018 | ICM | Online | ||
3–4 Feb | 36% | 45% | 19% | 1,675 | YouGov/The Times | Online | ||
29–31 Jan | 42% | 39% | 19% | 2,002 | ICM | Online | ||
27–28 Jan | 38% | 42% | 20% | 1,735 | YouGov | Online | ||
23–25 Jan | 55% | 36% | 9% | 513 | Ipsos MORI | Telephone | ||
21–25 Jan | 44% | 42% | 14% | 1,511 | BMG Research | Online | Includes Northern Ireland | |
22–24 Jan | 54% | 36% | 10% | 1,006 | ComRes | Telephone | ||
22–24 Jan | 41% | 41% | 18% | 2,010 | ICM | Online | ||
20–21 Jan | 52% | 48% | N/A | 2,015 | ORB | Online | ||
15–17 Jan | 42% | 40% | 17% | 2,023 | ICM | Online | ||
15–16 Jan | 38% | 40% | 22% | 1,017 | Survation | Online | Includes Northern Ireland | |
8–14 Jan | 42% | 45% | 12% | 2,087 | Panelbase | Online | ||
8–10 Jan | 44% | 38% | 18% | 2,055 | ICM | Online |
2015
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Undecided | Sample | Conducted by | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17–18 Dec | 41% | 42% | 17% | 1,598 | YouGov | |||
12–14 Dec | 58% | 32% | 10% | 529 | Ipsos MORI | |||
11–13 Dec | 56% | 35% | 8% | 1,001 | ComRes | |||
11–13 Dec | 42% | 41% | 17% | 2,053 | ICM | |||
4–6 Dec | 43% | 39% | 17% | 2,022 | ICM | |||
2–3 Dec | 36% | 43% | 21% | 1,001 | ORB | |||
30 Nov–3 Dec | 40% | 42% | 18% | 10,015 | Survation | Includes Northern Ireland | ||
20–24 Nov | 41% | 41% | 18% | 4,317 | YouGov | |||
19–24 Nov | 40% | 38% | 22% | 1,699 | YouGov | |||
20–22 Nov | 45% | 38% | 17% | 2,002 | ICM | |||
17–19 Nov | 48% | 52% | N/A | 2,067 | ORB | |||
16–17 Nov | 43% | 40% | 18% | 1,546 | Survation | Includes Northern Ireland | ||
11–17 Nov | 39% | 39% | 22% | 1,528 | BMG Research | Includes Northern Ireland | ||
13–15 Nov | 43% | 38% | 19% | 2,000 | ICM | |||
9–11 Nov | 38% | 41% | 21% | 2,007 | Survation | Includes Northern Ireland | ||
6–8 Nov | 46% | 38% | 16% | 2,024 | ICM | |||
30 Oct–1 Nov | 44% | 38% | 18% | 2,060 | ICM | |||
28–29 Oct | 39% | 41% | 19% | 1,664 | YouGov | |||
22–27 Oct | 40% | 40% | 20% | 1,738 | YouGov | |||
23–25 Oct | 45% | 38% | 17% | 2,049 | ICM | |||
23–25 Oct | 53% | 47% | N/A | 2,015 | ORB | |||
22–23 Oct | 42% | 39% | 16% | 1,625 | YouGov | |||
19–20 Oct | 42% | 40% | 17% | 1,690 | YouGov | |||
17–19 Oct | 52% | 36% | 12% | 498 | Ipsos MORI | |||
14–19 Oct | 42% | 39% | 19% | 2,372 | GQRR | |||
16–18 Oct | 44% | 38% | 18% | 2,023 | ICM | |||
7 Oct | 44% | 39% | 17% | 1,947 | ICM | |||
25–28 Sep | 55% | 36% | 8% | 1,009 | ComRes | |||
25–27 Sep | 45% | 38% | 17% | 2,005 | ICM | |||
17–22 Sep | 38% | 41% | 21% | 2,781 | YouGov | |||
10–17 Sep | 38% | 40% | 22% | 11,171 | YouGov | |||
11–13 Sep | 43% | 40% | 17% | 2,006 | ICM | |||
12 Sep | Jeremy Corbyn is elected leader of the Labour Party | |||||||
3–4 Sep | 40% | 40% | 20% | 1,004 | Survation | |||
18–19 Aug | 44% | 37% | 20% | 1,676 | YouGov | |||
13–17 Aug | 50% | 40% | 10% | 3,402 | YouGov | |||
23–29 Jul | 45% | 37% | 19% | 1,708 | YouGov | |||
16 Jul | Tim Farron is elected leader of the Liberal Democrats | |||||||
29 Jun–6 Jul | 45% | 37% | 18% | 5,008 | Survation | Includes Northern Ireland | ||
19–24 Jun | 44% | 38% | 18% | 1,653 | YouGov | |||
19–21 Jun | 55% | 45% | N/A | 2,000 | ORB | |||
14–16 Jun | 66% | 22% | 12% | 501 | Ipsos MORI | |||
8–11 Jun | 43% | 36% | 21% | 2,381 | YouGov | |||
1–2 Jun | 44% | 34% | 21% | 1,063 | YouGov | |||
27 May–2 Jun | 42% | 35% | 22% | 2,956 | YouGov | |||
29–31 May | 58% | 31% | 11% | 500 | ComRes | |||
28–31 May | 47% | 33% | 20% | 680 | ICM | |||
21–22 May | 44% | 36% | 20% | 1,532 | YouGov | |||
8–15 May | 47% | 40% | 13% | 3,977 | Survation | |||
7 Apr–13 May | 55% | 36% | 9% | 999 | Pew Research Center | |||
8–9 May | 45% | 36% | 19% | 1,302 | YouGov | |||
8–9 May | 45% | 38% | 18% | 1,027 | Survation | |||
7 May | United Kingdom general election, 2015 | |||||||
3–5 May | 56% | 34% | 10% | 1,011 | ComRes | |||
3–4 May | 45% | 33% | 21% | 1,664 | YouGov | |||
28–29 Apr | 52% | 32% | 16% | 1,823 | YouGov | |||
23–28 Apr | 47% | 33% | 20% | 1,834 | YouGov | |||
19–20 Apr | 45% | 35% | 20% | 2,078 | YouGov | |||
10–12 Apr | 40% | 39% | 21% | 2,036 | Populus | |||
8–9 Apr | 45% | 41% | 15% | 1,750 | Opinium | |||
26–30 Mar | 35% | 34% | 31% | 1,197 | TNS-BMRB | |||
24–26 Mar | 49% | 44% | 7% | 1,007 | Panelbase | Includes Northern Ireland | ||
18–25 Mar | 41% | 38% | 21% | 2,006 | YouGov | |||
22–23 Mar | 46% | 36% | 18% | 1,641 | YouGov | |||
18–23 Mar | 42% | 34% | 23% | 8,271 | YouGov | |||
23–24 Feb | 45% | 37% | 18% | 1,520 | YouGov | |||
22–23 Feb | 45% | 35% | 20% | 1,772 | YouGov | |||
17–20 Feb | 41% | 44% | 15% | 1,975 | Opinium | |||
25–26 Jan | 43% | 37% | 20% | 1,656 | YouGov | |||
18–19 Jan | 43% | 38% | 18% | 1,747 | YouGov | |||
15–19 Jan | 38% | 34% | 28% | 1,188 | TNS-BMRB | |||
6–8 Jan | 37% | 40% | 23% | 1,201 | TNS-BMRB |
2014
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Undecided | Sample | Conducted by | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14–15 Dec | 40% | 39% | 21% | 1,648 | YouGov | |||
30 Nov–1 Dec | 42% | 39% | 20% | 1,763 | YouGov | |||
20–26 Nov | 38% | 43% | 19% | 1,641 | YouGov | |||
21–23 Nov | 32% | 48% | 20% | 2,049 | ComRes | |||
20–21 Nov | 40% | 41% | 19% | 1,970 | YouGov | |||
19–21 Nov | 40% | 41% | 19% | 2,314 | YouGov | |||
16–17 Nov | 39% | 39% | 21% | 1,589 | YouGov | |||
7 Nov | 31% | 54% | 15% | 1,020 | Survation | |||
2–3 Nov | 38% | 41% | 21% | 1,652 | YouGov | |||
31 Oct–2 Nov | 35% | 49% | 17% | 2,012 | Survation | |||
30–31 Oct | 37% | 43% | 20% | 1,808 | YouGov | |||
27–28 Oct | 35% | 44% | 21% | 2,052 | YouGov | |||
23–24 Oct | 41% | 40% | 19% | 2,069 | YouGov | |||
19–20 Oct | 40% | 39% | 21% | 1,727 | YouGov | |||
11–14 Oct | 56% | 36% | 8% | 1,002 | Ipsos MORI | |||
21–22 Sep | 42% | 38% | 19% | 1,671 | YouGov | |||
18 Sep | Scottish independence referendum, 2014 | |||||||
25–26 Aug | 41% | 40% | 19% | 2,021 | YouGov | |||
10–11 Aug | 40% | 38% | 22% | 1,676 | YouGov | |||
13–14 Jul | 41% | 38% | 21% | 1,745 | YouGov | |||
29–30 Jun | 40% | 39% | 21% | 1,729 | YouGov | |||
27–29 Jun | 36% | 43% | 21% | 2,049 | ComRes | |||
27–28 Jun | 39% | 47% | 14% | 1,000 | Survation | |||
26–27 Jun | 39% | 37% | 24% | 1,936 | YouGov | |||
19–20 Jun | 39% | 39% | 21% | 2,016 | YouGov | |||
17–19 Jun | 37% | 48% | 15% | 1,946 | Opinium | |||
15–16 Jun | 44% | 36% | 20% | 1,696 | YouGov | |||
30 May–1 Jun | 40% | 42% | 18% | 2,062 | ComRes | |||
29–30 May | 41% | 39% | 20% | 2,090 | YouGov | |||
22 May | European Parliament election, 2014 | |||||||
20–21 May | 42% | 37% | 21% | 6,124 | YouGov | |||
18–19 May | 43% | 37% | 20% | 1,740 | YouGov | |||
10–12 May | 54% | 37% | 10% | 1,003 | Ipsos MORI | |||
28 Apr–6 May | 39% | 38% | 23% | 1,805 | YouGov | |||
2–3 May | 39% | 46% | 15% | 1,005 | Survation | |||
24–28 Apr | 41% | 49% | 10% | 1,199 | TNS-BMRB | |||
24–25 Apr | 40% | 37% | 23% | 1,835 | YouGov | |||
21–22 Apr | 40% | 38% | 23% | 2,190 | YouGov | |||
3–4 Apr | 42% | 37% | 21% | 1,998 | YouGov | |||
27–28 Mar | 42% | 36% | 21% | 1,916 | YouGov | |||
23–24 Mar | 42% | 36% | 22% | 1,558 | YouGov | |||
9–10 Mar | 41% | 39% | 20% | 3,195 | YouGov | |||
9–10 Feb | 36% | 39% | 25% | 1,685 | YouGov | |||
7–20 Jan | 41% | 41% | 18% | 20,058 | Lord Ashcroft Polls | |||
12–13 Jan | 33% | 43% | 24% | 1,762 | YouGov |
2013
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Undecided | Sample | Conducted by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1–9 Dec | 37% | 43% | 20% | Unknown | YouGov | |
10–11 Nov | 39% | 39% | 22% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
13–14 Oct | 42% | 37% | 20% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
23–27 Sep | 36% | 44% | 20% | 1,922 | YouGov | |
15–16 Sep | 42% | 39% | 20% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
18–19 Aug | 46% | 34% | 20% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
6–8 Aug | 32% | 53% | 15% | 1,945 | Opinium | |
4–5 Aug | 43% | 35% | 22% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
18–24 Jul | 35% | 45% | 21% | 1,968 | YouGov | |
22–23 Jul | 45% | 35% | 21% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
7–8 Jul | 43% | 36% | 21% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
4–5 Jul | 36% | 46% | 19% | 1,022 | YouGov | |
23–24 Jun | 45% | 31% | 24% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
9–10 Jun | 43% | 35% | 22% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
1–3 Jun | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1,566 | Survation | |
28–29 May | 43% | 35% | 22% | Unknown | YouGov[25] | |
21–28 May | 41% | 38% | 20% | 1,512 | YouGov | |
17–18 May | 36% | 50% | 14% | 1,000 | Survation | |
16–17 May | 36% | 45% | 19% | 1,809 | YouGov | |
15–16 May | 24% | 46% | 30% | 2,017 | ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent | Northern Ireland not sampled |
15–16 May | 30% | 46% | 24% | 2,017 | ICM/The Telegraph | |
12–13 May | 34% | 44% | 22% | 1,748 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
10–12 May | 40% | 43% | 17% | 1,001 | ICM/The Guardian | |
9–10 May | 30% | 47% | 23% | 1,945 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7 May | 35% | 46% | 20% | 719 | YouGov/The Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7–8 April | 36% | 43% | 21% | 1,765 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
4–27 March | 46% | 46% | 8% | 1,012 | Pew Research Center | Includes Northern Ireland |
17–18 February | 38% | 41% | 21% | 1,713 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
5 February | 30% | 41% | 22% | 1,237 | TNS BMRB | |
29 Jan – 6 Feb | 33% | 50% | 17% | 2,114 | Financial Times/Harris | |
25 January | 36% | 50% | 16% | 1,005 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | Northern Ireland not sampled |
24–25 January | 37% | 39% | 24% | 1,943 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
23 January | 37% | 40% | 23% | 2,000 | Populus/The Times | |
20–21 January | 37% | 40% | 24% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
17–18 January | 34% | 25% | 40% | 1,912 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
10–11 January | 36% | 42% | 21% | 1,995 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
6 January | 36% | 54% | 10% | 1,002 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2–3 January | 31% | 46% | 22% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2012
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Undecided | Sample | Conducted by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
27–28 November | 30% | 51% | 9% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
13–15 November | 30% | 56% | 14% | 1,957 | Opinium/Observer | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2011
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Undecided | Sample | Conducted by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15–16 December | 41% | 41% | 19% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
8–9 December | 35% | 44% | 20% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7–8 August | 30% | 52% | 19% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2010
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Undecided | Sample | Conducted by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8–9 September | 33% | 47% | 19% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
Sub-national polling
England
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
9–16 September 2015 | 40% | 43% | 17% | 1,712 | YouGov |
England & Wales
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
26 June–3 July 2015 | 42% | 43% | 15% | 956 | Panelbase/Sunday Times |
London
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
4–6 January 2016 | 39% | 34% | 27% | 1,156 | YouGov/LBC |
17–19 November 2014 | 45% | 37% | 14% | 1,124 | YouGov/The Evening Standard |
20–25 June 2013 | 41% | 39% | 20% | 1,269 | YouGov/Evening Standard |
Northern Ireland
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
19–21 October 2015 | 56% | 28% | 15% | 2,517 | Lucid Talk |
2–16 October 2015 | 55% | 13% | 32% | 1,012 | BBC/RTÉ |
Scotland
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-2 May 2016 | 58% | 19% | 19% | 1,024 | Survation/Daily Record |
23-28 April 2016 | 57% | 33% | 11% | 1,074 | Panelbase/Sunday Times |
18-25 April 2016 | 66% | 29% | 5% | 1,015 | Ipsos MORI/STV |
1-24 April 2016 | 48% | 21% | 31% | 1,012 | TNS |
15-20 April 2016 | 54% | 28% | 17% | 1,005 | Survation/Daily Record |
11-15 April 2016 | 55% | 35% | 9% | 1,013 | BMG Research/Herald |
6-15 April 2016 | 55% | 33% | 12% | 1,021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times |
2-22 March 2016 | 51% | 19% | 29% | 1,051 | TNS |
10-17 March 2016 | 53% | 29% | 17% | 1,051 | Survation/Daily Record |
7–9 March 2016 | 48% | 31% | 21% | 1,070 | YouGov |
11–16 February 2016 | 52% | 27% | 21% | 951 | Survation |
1–7 February 2016 | 62% | 26% | 12% | 1,000 | Ipsos MORI |
1–4 February 2016 | 55% | 28% | 18% | 1,022 | YouGov/The Times |
6–25 January 2016 | 44% | 21% | 29% | 1,016 | TNS |
8–14 January 2016 | 54% | 30% | 16% | 1,053 | Panelbase/Sunday Times |
8–12 January 2016 | 52% | 27% | 21% | 1,029 | Survation/Daily Record |
9–16 November 2015 | 65% | 22% | 13% | 1,029 | Ipsos MORI |
9–13 October 2015 | 51% | 31% | 17% | 1,026 | YouGov/Times |
9–30 September 2015 | 47% | 18% | 29% | 1,037 | TNS |
22–27 September 2015 | 55% | 30% | 15% | 1,004 | YouGov |
7–10 September 2015 | 51% | 29% | 20% | 975 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail |
26 June–3 July 2015 | 55% | 29% | 16% | 1,002 | Panelbase/Sunday Times |
3–7 July 2015 | 51% | 26% | 23% | 1,045 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail |
13–30 May 2015 | 49% | 19% | 26% | 1,031 | TNS BMRB |
19–21 May 2015 | 54% | 25% | 21% | 1,001 | YouGov/Sunday Post |
29 January–2 February 2015 | 52% | 29% | 17% | 1,001 | YouGov/The Times |
9–14 January 2015 | 42% | 37% | 21% | 1,007 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland |
6–13 November 2014 | 47% | 35% | 18% | 1,001 | Survation/Daily Record |
30 October−5 November 2014 | 41% | 38% | 19% | 1,000 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland |
4–9 February 2013 | 54% | 33% | 13% | 1,003 | Ipsos MORI/The Times |
Wales
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
7–11 April 2016 | 38% | 39% | 16% | 1,011 | YouGov |
9–11 February 2016 | 37% | 45% | 18% | 1,024 | YouGov |
21–24 September 2015 | 42% | 38% | 21% | 1,010 | YouGov |
4–6 May 2015 | 47% | 33% | 16% | 1,202 | YouGov/ITV Wales |
24–27 March 2015 | 44% | 38% | 14% | 1,189 | YouGov/ITV Wales |
5–9 March 2015 | 43% | 36% | 17% | 1,279 | YouGov/ITV Wales |
19–26 February 2015 | 63% | 33% | 4% | 1,000 | ICM/BBC |
19–21 January 2015 | 44% | 36% | 16% | 1,036 | YouGov/ITV Wales |
2–5 December 2014 | 42% | 39% | 15% | 1,131 | YouGov/ITV Wales |
8–11 September 2014 | 43% | 37% | 15% | 1,025 | YouGov/ITV Wales |
26 June–1 July 2014 | 41% | 36% | 18% | 1,035 | YouGov/ITV Wales |
21–24 February 2014 | 54% | 40% | 6% | 1,000 | ICM/BBC |
14–25 June 2013 | 29% | 37% | 35% | 1,015 | Beaufort Research |
Gibraltar
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-15 April 2016 | 88% | 8% | 3% | 506 | Gibraltar Chronicle |
Renegotiated terms
The UK government plans to renegotiate its membership of the European Union before holding the referendum.[26][27] Some opinion polls have asked the referendum question under the hypothesis that the UK government says that it is satisfied with the renegotiation.[28]
Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1–2 June 2015 | 55% | 24% | 18% | 1,063 | YouGov/Prospect | Northern Ireland not sampled |
8–9 May 2015 | 58% | 24% | 16% | 1,302 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
3–4 May 2015 | 56% | 20% | 20% | 1,664 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
19–20 April 2015 | 57% | 22% | 17% | 2,078 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
22–23 March 2015 | 57% | 22% | 18% | 1,641 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
22–23 February 2015 | 57% | 21% | 17% | 1,772 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
25–26 January 2015 | 54% | 25% | 16% | 1,656 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
18–19 January 2015 | 57% | 21% | 19% | 1,747 | YouGov/British Influence | Northern Ireland not sampled |
14–15 Dec 2014 | 55% | 24% | 16% | 1,648 | YouGov/The Sun | |
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2014 | 55% | 25% | 17% | 1,763 | YouGov/The Sun | |
17–19 November 2014 | 58% | 25% | 13% | 1,124 | YouGov / The Evening Standard | |
16–17 November 2014 | 58% | 24% | 14% | 1,589 | YouGov / The Sun | |
4–7 November 2014 | 40% | 43% | 17% | 1,707 | Opinium/The Observer | |
2–3 November 2014 | 52% | 27% | 15% | 1,652 | YouGov / The Sun | |
19–20 October 2014 | 55% | 24% | 17% | 1,727 | YouGov / The Sun | |
21–22 September 2014 | 54% | 25% | 16% | 1,671 | YouGov / The Sun | |
25–26 August 2014 | 54% | 26% | 16% | 2,021 | YouGov / The Sun | |
10–11 August 2014 | 54% | 23% | 18% | 1,676 | YouGov / The Sun | |
13–14 July 2014 | 52% | 25% | 19% | 1,745 | YouGov / The Sun | |
29–30 June 2014 | 54% | 23% | 17% | 1,729 | YouGov / The Sun | |
15–16 June 2014 | 57% | 22% | 16% | 1,696 | YouGov / The Sun | |
18–19 May 2014 | 53% | 24% | 18% | 1,740 | YouGov | Northern Ireland not sampled |
24–25 April 2014 | 50% | 26% | 18% | 1,835 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
21–22 April 2014 | 52% | 26% | 18% | 2,190 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
23–24 March 2014 | 54% | 25% | 17% | 2,190 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
9–10 March 2014 | 52% | 27% | 16% | 3,195 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
9–10 February 2014 | 47% | 27% | 18% | 1,685 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
12–13 January 2014 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 1,762 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
12–13 May 2013 | 45% | 33% | 19% | 1,748 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
9–10 May 2013 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 1,945 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7–8 April 2013 | 46% | 31% | 17% | 1,765 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
17–18 February 2013 | 52% | 28% | 14% | 1,713 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
Polling within professional groups
Business leaders
The British Chambers of Commerce surveyed 2,200 business leaders in January and February of 2016. Of these, 60% supported remaining in the EU and 30% supported exit. In a further poll published in May, these numbers had changed to 54% and 37% respectively.[29][30]
The Confederation of British Industry reported a survey of 773 of its members, carried out by ComRes. With numbers adjusted to reflect CBI membership, the poll indicated that 80% of CBI members saw a "remain" outcome as the best outcome for their business, with 5% seeing "leave" as the best outcome.[31][32][33]
In a poll of 350 board directors of UK businesses, published in June 2015, 82% agreed with the statement that "the UK's membership of the EU is good for British businesses", while 12% disagreed.[34][35] In a follow-up poll reported in March 2016, 63% agreed that "British businesses are better off inside the European Union than out of it" while 20% disagreed.[35][36] To the statement, "An EU exit risks stifling British business growth," 59% agreed and 30% disagreed. To the statement, "Our membership of the EU gives British businesses invaluable access to European markets," 71% agreed and 16% disagreed. Thirty-five per cent agreed that "An EU exit would leave British businesses facing a skills shortage" while 50% disagreed.[36]
The manufacturers' organisation EEF used the market research organisation GfK to conduct a survey in late 2015 of 500 senior decision-makers in manufacturing organisations. Of these, 63% wanted the UK to stay in the EU, and 5% wanted it to leave. Three percent said there was no advantage to their businesses for the UK to be in the EU, against 50% who said it was important and a further 20% who said it was critical for their business.[37][38]
Two surveys by consultants Deloitte asked 120 Chief Financial Officers of large UK companies "whether it is in the interests of UK businesses for the UK to remain a member of the EU." In the first survey, in the final quarter of 2015, 62% agreed while 6% disagreed. A further 28% said they would withhold their judgement until the renegotiation in February 2016. The second survey, in early 2016, had 75% saying it was in the interest of UK businesses to remain, with 8% saying it was not.[39][40]
In April 2016, the International Chamber of Commerce published a survey of 226 businesses from 27 different countries. Of these international businesses, 46% said they would reduce investment in the UK if it left the EU, while 1% said Brexit would increase their investment in the UK. As to whether the UK should leave the EU, 8% thought it should, while 86% wanted the UK to remain.[41][42][43]
In May 2016, law firm King & Wood Mallesons published a survey of 300 businesses, equally split between France, Spain, Italy, and Germany. Asked about the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, 68% said it would adversely affect their businesses and 62% said they would be less likely to do business in the UK. When asked to name ways in which their businesses could benefit from Brexit, a majority of respondents in France, Italy, and Spain said that their countries could benefit as companies move jobs out of the UK.[44][45]
Scientists
In March 2016, Nature reported a survey of 907 active science researchers based in the UK. Of these, 78% said exit from the EU would be "somewhat harmful" or "very harmful" for UK science, with 9% saying it would be "somewhat beneficial" or "very beneficial". Asked, "Should the UK exit the EU or remain?" 83% chose "remain" and 12% "exit".[46] The journal also surveyed a further 954 scientists based in the EU but outside the UK. Of these, 47% said the UK's exit would be "harmful" or "very harmful" for science in the EU, with 11.5% choosing "beneficial" or "very beneficial".[46]
Lawyers
Legal Week surveyed almost 350 partners in legal firms. Of these, 77% said that a UK exit from the EU would have a "negative" or "very negative" effect on the City's position in global financial markets, with 6.2% predicting a "positive" effect. Asked about the effect on their own firms, 59% of the partners predicted a "quite adverse" or "very adverse" effect, while 13% said the effect would be "quite positive" or "very positive".[47]
Economists
The Financial Times surveyed 105 economists about how an exit from the EU would affect their views of the UK's prospects, publishing the results in January 2016. In the medium term, 76 respondents (72%) said the UK's prospects would be worse, 8 (7.6%) said they would be better, and 18 (17%) predicted no difference.[48]
Ipsos MORI surveyed members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists for The Observer, with 639 responses. Over the next five years, 88% said that Brexit would have a negative effect on GDP, 7% said it would have no impact, and 3% said there would it would have a positive impact, while 82% said it would have a negative effect on household incomes, 9% said it would have no impact, and 7% said it would have a positive effect. Over ten to twenty years, 72% said it would have a negative effect on GDP, 11% said it would have no impact and 11% said it would have a positive effect, while 73% said it would have a negative effect on household income, 13% said it would have no impact, and 10% said it would have a positive effect.[49][50]
Other opinion polling
In a poll released in December 2015, Lord Ashcroft asked 20,000 people in the UK to place themselves on a scale of 0-100 of how likely they were vote to remain or leave. A total of 47% placed themselves in the "leave" end of the scale, 38% in the "remain" end and 14% were completely undecided.[51][52]
On British withdrawal
France – A poll conducted by French daily newspaper Le Parisien in January 2013 found that 52% of French voters were in favour of the UK withdrawing from the EU.[53] Of the 1,136 people polled, in conjunction with French research agency BVA in January 2013, 48% said they would rather the UK remained inside the EU.[54]
Germany – A study carried out by Internationale Politik in January 2013 found 64% of Germans favoured Britain remaining inside the EU – with 36% saying they favoured an exit. The biggest support for retaining the union with the UK was with the younger generation with 69% of 18- to 25-year-olds saying they wanted the UK to stay. Amongst the German political parties, the supporters of the Green Party remained most favourable at 85%.[55]
Ashcroft polling
In early 2016, Lord Ashcroft polled individuals in each of the other European Union member states to gauge opinion on whether they thought the United Kingdom should leave the EU, whether they thought the UK should remain a member or whether they believed it didn't matter. All member states said that they wanted the UK to remain a member, except Cyprus, the Czech Republic and Slovenia.[56]
Country | Remain | Doesn't matter | Leave |
---|---|---|---|
![]() |
41% | 41% | 19% |
![]() |
49% | 38% | 13% |
![]() |
67% | 27% | 7% |
![]() |
49% | 41% | 10% |
![]() |
35% | 45% | 19% |
![]() |
40% | 47% | 13% |
![]() |
56% | 31% | 13% |
![]() |
65% | 28% | 8% |
![]() |
50% | 39% | 11% |
![]() |
50% | 32% | 18% |
![]() |
59% | 30% | 11% |
![]() |
50% | 35% | 15% |
![]() |
64% | 30% | 7% |
![]() |
72% | 18% | 10% |
![]() |
67% | 24% | 9% |
![]() |
58% | 33% | 9% |
![]() |
78% | 16% | 6% |
![]() |
55% | 21% | 24% |
![]() |
76% | 18% | 6% |
![]() |
49% | 42% | 10% |
![]() |
67% | 27% | 6% |
![]() |
74% | 20% | 7% |
![]() |
70% | 26% | 4% |
![]() |
61% | 32% | 7% |
![]() |
43% | 49% | 8% |
![]() |
70% | 24% | 6% |
![]() |
56% | 33% | 12% |
![]() |
60% | 30% | 10% |
Additionally, Ashcroft asked the same group of people whether they would be happy for Britain to remain in the European Union to renegotiated terms or whether they thought the UK should leave if they don't like their current terms of membership. Newer countries to the European Union, countries which have joined the Union since 2004, were the biggest supporters: 52% supported the renegotiated position, compared to just 40% of respondents from EU members who joined before 2004.[56]
Country | Remain | Leave |
---|---|---|
![]() |
24% | 76% |
![]() |
34% | 66% |
![]() |
52% | 48% |
![]() |
36% | 64% |
![]() |
33% | 67% |
![]() |
42% | 58% |
![]() |
51% | 49% |
![]() |
44% | 56% |
![]() |
30% | 70% |
![]() |
36% | 64% |
![]() |
35% | 65% |
![]() |
39% | 61% |
![]() |
61% | 39% |
![]() |
54% | 46% |
![]() |
50% | 50% |
![]() |
49% | 51% |
![]() |
64% | 36% |
![]() |
26% | 74% |
![]() |
69% | 31% |
![]() |
37% | 63% |
![]() |
52% | 48% |
![]() |
61% | 39% |
![]() |
59% | 41% |
![]() |
47% | 53% |
![]() |
29% | 71% |
![]() |
43% | 57% |
![]() |
37% | 63% |
![]() |
43% | 57% |
ICM polling
An ICM online poll of 1,000 adults in each of nine European countries in November 2015 found an average of 53% in favour of the UK's remaining in the EU.[57]
Country | Remain | Leave |
---|---|---|
![]() |
46% | 24% |
![]() |
49% | 19% |
![]() |
51% | 22% |
![]() |
55% | 19% |
![]() |
63% | 20% |
![]() |
34% | 27% |
![]() |
74% | 8% |
![]() |
69% | 11% |
![]() |
43% | 26% |
On the possible withdrawal of other countries
Denmark – A poll commissioned in January 2013 following David Cameron's EU referendum speech found that 52% of Danes would still want their country to stay within the EU even if the UK voted to withdraw. However, 47% said they would like the British Government to attempt to renegotiate improved terms of their membership.[58]
Ireland – A Red C poll, commissioned by European Movement Ireland in January 2013, found most Irish people would opt for Ireland to remain inside the EU – 66% – even if the UK decided to leave. Just 29% of those asked said that Ireland should leave if the UK does.[59]
See also
External links
- Brexit poll tracker – Financial Times
- EU referendum poll tracker – BBC News
- EU referendum poll tracker and odds – The Telegraph
References
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