2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

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Not to be confused with 2022 Oklahoma Senate election.

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For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections. For the other Senate election in Oklahoma held in parallel, see 2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma.
2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
← 2020 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2026 →
Reporting
99%
as of 4:12 a.m. CST
  File:Markwayne Mullin, 117th Congress portrait (cropped).jpg File:Kendra Horn official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Markwayne Mullin Kendra Horn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 709,169 404,686
Percentage 61.8% 35.2%
U.S. senator before election

Jim Inhofe
Republican

 Elected U.S. senator

Markwayne Mullin
Republican
Elections in Oklahoma
Seal of Oklahoma.svg
This box:

The 2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Oklahoma. The election took place concurrently with the regularly-scheduled election for Oklahoma's other Senate seat.[1]

This special election was held to fill the remaining four years of incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe's fifth term. In February 2022, Inhofe announced he would resign early at the end of the 117th United States Congress on January 3, 2023.[2] He was first elected in the 1994 special election with 55% of the vote, succeeding retiring Democratic Senator David Boren.[3] Inhofe won re-election to a fifth full term in 2020 with 63% of the vote.[4]

Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn secured the Democratic nomination by default, while the primary election for the Republican nomination took place on June 28, 2022. Incumbent U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin won the Republican primary runoff on August 23, defeating former state House Speaker T. W. Shannon.[5] All candidates had to file between April 13–15, 2022.[5] Mullin won the election.[6]

Republican primary

On February 25, 2022, Jim Inhofe, the state's longest-serving U.S. Senator, announced he would leave office at the end of the 117th Congress, triggering a special election for his U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma.[7] A crowded field of candidates was expected in the Republican primary following the announcement of Inhofe's retirement.[8]

Luke Holland, Inhofe's former chief of staff, launched his campaign for Inhofe's seat on the same day with Inhofe's endorsement.[7] The next day, Markwayne Mullin, a U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, announced his campaign.[9] By February 28, Oklahoma State Senator Nathan Dahm had announced he was switching his campaign from running for Oklahoma's Class III seat to running for the special election seat.[10] On March 8, former United States National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray announced his campaign.[11] T. W. Shannon, a former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, officially announced his campaign on March 11.[12] Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, filed to run on April 15.[13]

Candidates

File:Speaker Shannon.jpg
Former state house speaker T. W. Shannon lost the runoff

Nominee

File:Nathan-Dahm-1.jpg
State senator Nathan Dahm finished third in the initial primary

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in initial primary

Withdrew before primary

Declined

First round

Endorsements

Debates

2022 Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Nathan
Dahm		 Luke
Holland		 Markwayne
Mullin		 Scott
Pruitt		 T.W.
Shannon
1 June 9, 2022 News on 6 Link P P A P P
2 June 22, 2022 News on 6 Link P P A P P

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Nathan
Dahm		 Jessica
Garrison		 Alex
Gray		 Randy
Grellner		 Luke
Holland		 Adam
Holley		 Markwayne
Mullin		 Scott
Pruitt		 T.W.
Shannon		 Other Undecided
SoonerPoll June 13–21, 2022 350 (LV) ± 5.2% 8% – 2% 1% 5% – 39% 2% 13% – 30%
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 5% 3% 0% 1% 4% 0% 38% 6% 19% 0%[lower-alpha 2] 22%
SoonerPoll April 25 – May 11, 2022 306 (LV) ± 5.6% 6% 0% 0% 1% 3% 1% 38% 3% 16% 0%[lower-alpha 2] 31%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 6% – 1% – 2% – 39% – 14% – 38%

Results

File:2022 United States Senate special Republican primary election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
Initial primary results by county:
  Mullin
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Shannon
  •   30–40%
  Grellner
  •   20–30%
Republican primary results[52][53]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Markwayne Mullin 156,087 43.62%
Republican T. W. Shannon 62,746 17.53%
Republican Nathan Dahm 42,673 11.92%
Republican Luke Holland 40,353 11.28%
Republican Scott Pruitt 18,052 5.04%
Republican Randy J. Grellner 15,794 4.41%
Republican Laura Moreno 6,597 1.84%
Republican Jessica Jean Garrison 6,114 1.71%
Republican Alex Gray (withdrew) 3,063 0.86%
Republican John F. Tompkins 2,332 0.65%
Republican Adam Holley 1,873 0.52%
Republican Michael Coibion 1,261 0.35%
Republican Paul Royse 900 0.25%
Total votes 357,845 100.0%

Runoff

Endorsements

Debates

2022 Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Markwayne
Mullin		 T.W.
Shannon
1 August 2, 2022 News on 6 [1] P P

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Markwayne
Mullin		 T.W.
Shannon		 Undecided
SoonerPoll August 11–17, 2022 322 (LV) ± 5.4% 53% 47% 0%
Amber Integrated (R) August 11–15, 2022 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 31% 20%
Battleground Connect (R) July 31 – August 1, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 38% 16%
SoonerPoll July 25 – August 1, 2022 383 (LV) ± 5.0% 63% 35% 1%

Results

File:2022 United States Senate special Republican primary runoff election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
Primary runoff results by county:
  Mullin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Shannon
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Markwayne Mullin 183,118 65.08%
Republican T. W. Shannon 98,246 34.92%
Total votes 281,364 100.0%

Democratic nomination

Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn was the only Democrat to file to run and was automatically awarded the Democratic nomination.[57]

General election

Candidates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[60] Solid R February 24, 2022
Inside Elections[61] Solid R February 24, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] Safe R March 1, 2022
Politico[63] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[64] Safe R February 24, 2022
Fox News[65] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[66] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[67] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[68] Safe R September 7, 2022

Endorsements

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Markwayne
Mullin (R)		 Kendra
Horn (D)		 Other
[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
270towin October 11 - November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 53.0% 39.8% 7.2% Mullin +13.2
Graphical summary

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Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Markwayne
Mullin (R)		 Kendra
Horn (D)		 Other Undecided
Ascend Action (R) November 5–6, 2022 682 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41% 3%[lower-alpha 4] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) October 26–28, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 41% 4%[lower-alpha 5] 2%
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 56% 35% 4%[lower-alpha 6] 5%
59% 36% 5%[lower-alpha 7] –
Ascend Action (R) October 24–28, 2022 749 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 41% 4%[lower-alpha 8] 8%
Amber Integrated (R) October 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 39% 5%[lower-alpha 9] 3%
Ascend Action (R) October 10–12, 2022 638 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 39% 1%[lower-alpha 10] 10%
SoonerPoll October 3–6, 2022 301 (LV) – 51% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 11] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) September 19–21, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 39% – 11%
–(L)[upper-alpha 1] September 15–18, 2022 2,989 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 37% 5%[lower-alpha 12] 9%
SoonerPoll September 2–7, 2022 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 40% 4%[lower-alpha 13] 4%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (RV) ± 6.3% 58% 28% – 13%

Results

2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Markwayne Mullin '
Democratic Kendra Horn
Libertarian Robert Murphy
Independent Ray Woods N/A
Total votes

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ This poll was conducted in-house by and for Natalie Bruno's campaign for Governor
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Coibion, Moreno, Royse, and Tompkins with 0%
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ Woods (I) with 2%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  5. ↑ Murphy (L) with 2%; Woods (I) with 2%
  6. ↑ Woods (I) with 3%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  7. ↑ Woods (I) with 4%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  8. ↑ Murphy (L) with 2%; Woods (I) with 2%
  9. ↑ Murphy (L) with 3%; Woods (I) with 2%
  10. ↑ Woods (I) with 1%; Murphy (L) with <1%
  11. ↑ Woods with 3%
  12. ↑ Murphy with 4%; Woods with 1%
  13. ↑ Woods with 4%

References

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External links

Official campaign websites
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