Sixth Party System

United States presidential election results between 1968 and 2012. Note that there is no universally-agreed definition regarding the start and end date of the sixth party system.

Dark blue: Voted Democratic in 10 or 11 of the 12 elections from 1968-2012
Blue: Voted Democratic in 8 or 9 elections
Light blue: Voted Democratic in 7 elections
Green: Voted for both major parties in 6 elections each
Pink: Voted Republican in 7 elections
Light red: Voted Republican in 8 or 9 elections
Red: Voted Republican in 10, 11 or all 12 elections

Experts have debated whether American national politics is currently in the era of Sixth Party System, or the Fifth Party System continues in some form to the present. Opinions also differ on when the Sixth Party System began, ranging from the 1960s to the 1990s election cycles. Maisel and Brewer (2011) argue that the consensus among specialists is that the Sixth System is underway based on American electoral politics since the 1960s:

Although most in the field now believe we are in a sixth party system, there is a fair amount of disagreement about how exactly we arrived at this new system and about its particular contours. Scholars do, however, agree that there has been significant change in American electoral politics since the 1960s.

The Sixth Party System is characterized by an electoral shift from the electoral coalitions of the Fifth Party System during the New Deal: the Republican Party became the dominant party in the South, rural areas, and suburbs; while the Democratic Party increasingly started to assemble a coalition of African-Americans, Hispanics and white urban Progressives. A critical factor was the major transformation of the political system in the Reagan Era or "Age of Reagan" of the 1980s and beyond led by Ronald Reagan.

However, no clear disciplinary consensus has been forged on an electoral event responsible for shifting presidential and congressional control since the Great Depression, when the Fifth Party System emerged. Much of the work published on the subject has been by political scientists explaining the events of their time as either the imminent breakup of the Fifth Party System, and the installation of a new one or that this transition took place some time ago. Other current writing on the Fifth Party System expresses admiration of its longevity: the first four systems lasted about 30 to 40 years each, which would have implied that the early twenty-first century should see a Seventh Party System. It is also possible, as argued in (Jensen 1981) and elsewhere, that the party system has given way, not to a new party system, but to a period of dealignment in politics. Previous party systems ended with the dominant party losing two consecutive House elections by large margins, with a presidential election coinciding with or immediately following (in 1896) the second house election—decisive electoral evidence of political realignment. This took place in 2006–8 in favor of the Democrats, but the Republicans won the elections of 2010 by their biggest landslide since 1946 and finished the 2014 elections with their greatest number of U.S. House seats since 1928.

Dating

Opinions differ on when the Sixth Party System began, varying from elections of 1966-68 or the 1980s when both parties began to become more unified and partisan, to the 1990s over cultural divisions.

Craig argues for the 1972 elections, when Richard Nixon won a 49-state landslide. He notes that, "There seems to be consensus on the appropriate name for the sixth party system.... Changes that occurred during the 1960s were so great and so pervasive that they cry out to be called a critical-election period. The new system of candidate-centered parties is so distinct and so portentous that one can no longer deny its existence or its character."

The Princeton Encyclopedia of American Political History dates the start in 1980, with the election of Reagan and a Republican Senate.

Political history

Main articles: History of the United States (1964–80), History of the United States (1980–91), and History of the United States (1991–present)

With the Democratic party providing support for the 1960s Civil Rights movement, Richard Nixon devised the so-called "Southern Strategy", using opposition to it to win the 1968 elections for himself and other Republican candidates in the South, ending a century of Democratic dominance in the region. Nixon also won the 1972 re-elections in landslide.

Ronald Reagan produced a major realignment with his 1980 and 1984 landslide elections. The Democrats had control of Congress with two breaks since 1932. The Republican Party took control of the Senate in 1980 and both houses in 1994. It built a strong base in the white South, while losing the Northeastern base of the liberal and moderate Republicans.

Reagan's economic policies (dubbed "Reaganomics") and the implementation of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 called for sharply reduced federal budgets, sharply reduced federal regulation of businesses, and sharp cuts in the federal income tax rates, the latter two of which were partially achieved. The top marginal income tax rate on high incomes was lowered from 70% to 28% over the course of seven years, with regulations on cable communication, shipping, and savings and loan associations being reduced. The federal fuel tax and Federal Insurance Contributions Act tax were both increased, and the Tax Reform Act of 1986, while reducing income taxes on upper-income individuals, increased taxes on lower-income individuals, capital gains, and corporate income. Regulation of firearms was increased and a federal standard for regulations on Indian gaming was created. Annual federal spending increased from about $1.6 trillion in 1981 to about $2.1 trillion in 1988. Increased federal spending, coupled with major taxation legislation that reduced tax revenue, caused the federal government's public debt to increase from 31.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1981 to 49.8% of GDP in 1988, with a tripling of the federal government's nominal debt during that time period. Following the early 1980s recession, economic growth and inflation maintained an average of about 4% per annum for the remainder of the decade, and the unemployment rate gradually decreased to nearly 5% by the end of the decade.

Characteristics

Some of the characteristics for this era displays are:

• Increased role of technology by television and later the internet
• Increased unity of control as each party and partisans eliminate moderates or differing opinions within their party
• Increased partisanship, with heated rhetoric and confrontations, and congressional gridlock
• Democratic Party emphasis on identity and not economics or labor as compared to the New Deal or Progressive Era
• Greater Republican Party emphasis on values than in the previous system

Issues

Harris and Tichenor argue:

At the level of issues, the sixth party system was characterized by clashes over what rights to extend to various groups in society. The initial manifestations of these clashes were race-based school desegregation and affirmative action, but women's issues, especially abortion rights, soon gained equal billing....To these were added in the 1980s and in the 1990s gay rights."

Voter coalitions

New voter coalitions included the emergence of the "religious right"—a combination of Catholics and fundamentalist Protestants united on opposition to abortion and gay rights. Southern white voters started voting for Republican presidential candidates in the 1960s, and Republican state and local candidates in the 1990s.

Democrats augmented their coalition with well educated voters, gays, and non-religious seculars. The Hispanic population grew very rapidly, reaching 15% of the population, but turnout was so low they were not a major factor in voting, except in California. Although George W. Bush made a special effort to reach Hispanics, their negative reaction to Republican enforcement-based approach on the issue of immigration strengthened the Democratic affiliations of those Hispanics who voted.

Rules of the game

New rule changes involved campaign financing, as very large sums were raised and candidates spent much of their energy focused on raising money behind the scenes. New campaign technologies involved the Internet, but television advertising continued to grow in importance, overshadowing the Internet as a campaign tool. Howard Dean in 2004 demonstrated that the Internet could be used to organize and finance a crusade, and this model was followed by most of the candidates for the 2008 election, with Barack Obama and Ron Paul the most successful.

Key events

• The political and cultural upheavals of the Vietnam War.
• The dramatic loss of power by the Democratic Party across the South.
• The dominance of the Democratic Party in the Northeast and West Coast.
• The collapse of the moderate Republican elements in Congress.
• The Southern Strategy dominated the Republicans since late 1960s.
• The rise of the centrist New Democrats during the Reagan administration.
• The strengthening of Conservatism in the United States.
• The weakening of Modern liberalism in the United States.
• The revitalization of the Republican Party's conservative wing.
• The rise of the religious right as a political power allied with the GOP.
• A new emphasis on social issues regarding abortion and homosexuality.
• The "Age of Reagan" shifting the terms of political debate after 1980.
• The promulgation of neoliberal economic models by Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Bill Clinton.
• The shift of New England, California, and industrial Midwest states (Michigan, Illinois) from moderate Republicanism to strong Democratic presidential voting patterns from 1992 onward
• The first Gulf War and the end of the Cold War.
• Deep involvement in complex Middle East; War in Afghanistan (2001–present) and Iraq War (2003–2011), plus Libya and Syria; intense support for Israel.
• The end of the Fairness Doctrine, and the rise of conservative talk radio led by Rush Limbaugh.
• Newt Gingrich nationalized Congressional elections with the "Republican Revolution" in 1994.
• The decline of moderate and centrist Democrats in the 2000s.
• The massive financial crisis and worldwide economic recession of 2008.
• Federal bailouts of major banks, financial institutions and auto companies, 2008–09.
• The election and re-election of Democratic President Barack Obama, the nation's first African-American president, 2008 and 2012.
• The rise of the Tea Party movement and the GOP landslides of 2010, and 2014.

See also

• Fifth Party System
• History of the Republican Party (United States)
• History of the Democratic Party (United States)
• Politics of the Southern United States
• Political party strength in U.S. states

Further reading

• Aberbach, Joel D., and Gillian Peele, eds. Crisis of Conservatism?: The Republican Party, the Conservative Movement, and American Politics After Bush (2011) excerpt and text search
• Aldrich, John H. "Political Parties in a Critical Era," American Politics Research, vol 27#1 (1999); speculates on emergence of Seventh Party System
• Alterman, Eric, and Kevin Mattson. The Cause: The Fight for American Liberalism from Franklin Roosevelt to Barack Obama (2012) biographical approach by liberal experts; excerpt and text search
• Bibby, John F. "Party Organizations, 1946-1996," in Byron E. Shafer, ed. Partisan Approaches to Postwar American Politics (1998)
• Brands, H.W. The Strange Death of American Liberalism (2003); a liberal view
• Collins, Robert M. Transforming America: Politics and Culture During the Reagan Years, (2007).
• Critchlow, Donald T. The Conservative Ascendancy: How the Republican Right Rose to Power in Modern America (2nd ed. 2011); a conservative view
• Ehrman, John. The Eighties: America in the Age of Reagan (2008); a conservative view
• Hayward, Steven F. The Age of Reagan: The Fall of the Old Liberal Order: 1964-1980 (2009), a conservative interpretation
• Hayward, Steven F. The Age of Reagan: The Conservative Counterrevolution 1980–1989 (2009) excerpt and text search
• Jensen, Richard. "The Last Party System: Decay of Consensus, 1932–1980," in The Evolution of American Electoral Systems (Paul Kleppner et al. eds.) (1981) pp 219–225,
• Kabaservice, Geoffrey. Rule and Ruin: The Downfall of Moderation and the Destruction of the Republican Party, From Eisenhower to the Tea Party (2012) scholarly history favorable to moderates excerpt and text search
• Martin, William. With God on Our Side: The Rise of the Religious Right in America, (1996)
• Paulson, Arthur. Electoral Realignment and the Outlook for American Democracy (2006)
• Shafer, Byron E. "Where Are We in History? Political Orders and Political Eras in the Postwar U.S.," The Forum (2007) Vol. 5#3, Article 4. online edition
• Wilentz, Sean. The Age of Reagan: A History 1974-2008 (2008), by a leading liberal.
• Zernike, Kate. Boiling Mad: Inside Tea Party America (2010), by a New York Times reporter