United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016

November 8, 2016

Party Republican Democratic

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Incumbent U.S. senator John McCain Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election will take place on August 30, 2016.

Incumbent Republican Senator John McCain is running for re-election to a sixth term in office. After hinting in September 2013 that he could retire, he subsequently said that the chances he would run again were "pretty good", but his campaign had emphasised that he had not made a decision yet. On April 7, 2015, McCain announced that he would run for re-election. McCain is expected to face strong primary opposition from the Tea Party. The primaries will be held on August 30.

Republican primary

John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, was re-elected to a fifth term with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. In 2016, he will be 80 years old and in September 2013, he hinted that he may retire, saying that "[President Obama's] in his last term, I'm probably in mine." When asked if that meant he wouldn't run for re-election, he said "I don't know. I was trying to make a point. I have to decide in about two years so I don't have to make a decision [now]. I don't want to be one of these old guys that should've shoved off." He then said in October 2013 that he was "seriously thinking" about running for re-election. By April 2014 he had held his first fundraiser and acknowledged that "elements on the right" would like to primary him, which he said was "fine with me... you know me: a fight not joined is a fight not enjoyed... I know that I will be very well-prepared." Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report noted that McCain did not fit the profile of a "complacent, long-serving incumbent", saying: "It's not an easy thing to take him on. He is going to be well-prepared, and he has a well-earned reputation for running really tough campaigns. He raises a lot of money and he puts together a good organization."

In September 2014, McCain began having "serious conversations" with state Republicans, local officials and key supporters about running for re-election. Though he faced a primary challenge in 2010 from former Congressman J. D. Hayworth, Hayworth was a flawed opponent and ran a weak campaign; McCain massively outspent and easily defeated him. However, he could face a stronger challenge in 2016. A survey by Public Policy Polling in March 2014 found that McCain was the most unpopular Senator in the country, with 30% of Arizonans approving of him to 54% who disapproved. His unpopularity was bipartisan, with his approvals at 35%–55% with Republicans, 29%–53% with Democrats and 25%–55% with independents. An April 2014 survey by The Polling Company for Citizens United Political Victory Fund found that 64.2% of Republican primary voters favored "a new person" to 29.3% who thought that "Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term." It also found him trailing in match-ups with a generic primary opponent and against specific opponents (see below).

Further compounding matters for McCain is his relationship with the Arizona Republican Party. After his re-election in 2010, McCain adopted more orthodox conservative stances and attitudes and largely opposed actions of the Obama administration. By 2013, however, he had become a key figure in the Senate for negotiating deals on certain issues in an otherwise partisan environment. By early 2014, McCain's apostasies were enough that the Arizona Republican Party formally censured him for having what they saw as a liberal record that had been "disastrous and harmful". The action had no practical effect but showed that McCain's history of being criticized at the state level as insufficiently conservative was still ongoing. Tea Party leaders have said that they are "sick to death" of McCain and will oppose him if he seeks re-election, with one prominent critic of McCain saying that Arizona conservatives were preparing for a "civil war". However, McCain still has a large warchest - $1.7 million as of June 2014 - and would be helped by Arizona state law, which allows independents to vote in the Republican primary.

By early October 2014, McCain was telling reporters that the odds of him running for re-election were "pretty good", saying that whether or not Republicans retake control of the Senate in the 2014 elections would be a factor in his decision-making, "but it certainly wouldn't be the deciding factor." In late October, it was revealed that McCain had scheduled a meeting with supporters two days after the 2014 midterm elections to "discuss my thoughts on my own re-election in 2016." At that meeting, following the Republican takeover of the Senate, he said that he was "seriously considering" and "leaning towards" running for re-election and will make an announcement in early 2015.

In December 2014, Politico reported that McCain and his allies were waging an "aggressive and systematic campaign" to purge the Arizona Republican Party's apparatus of Tea Party and far-right conservatives who hold "obscure, but influential, local party offices" and replace them with McCain loyalists. The Super PAC "Arizona Grassroots Action" was created, which raised almost $300,000 and supported McCain-allied candidates with mailers and automated phone calls, bringing attention to what were previously low-profile and uncontested races. Before August 26, when elections for party offices were held, almost all of the 3,925 precinct committeemen (who vote for local party chairmen, who in turn make decisions on how the party will spend state and local funds, which candidates receive endorsements or funding etc.) were opposed to McCain. After the elections, 1,531 (39%) were regarded as supportive of McCain. Most notably, Timothy Schwartz, who authored the resolution which censured McCain, was ousted. Schwartz attacked McCain for using his "prominence and money and influence" to "ramrod" his critics and former Maricopa County Republican Party Chairman A.J. LaFaro said that McCain was "vindictive" and engaging in the equivalent of "ethnic cleansing".

Tea Party Congressmen Matt Salmon and David Schweikert are widely regarded as two of the most serious potential challengers to McCain. The pair, who are close friends, have agreed that if one of them decides to run against McCain, the other will not do so, to ensure that the anti-McCain vote isn't split between them. Schweikert has acknowledged that he polled the race in 2014 but is considered the less likely of the two to run – he has much less cash-on-hand than Salmon and has admitted that his wife is "not thrilled" at the idea of him running for the Senate. Salmon has since stated that he will not challenge McCain in the primary.

In early February, McCain said that he was "most likely" running for re-election and Club for Growth President David McIntosh said that the organization would "watch closely" the primary race, particularly if Salmon or Schweikert ran, and would "do research and polling and determine if there's a path to victory [against McCain]." Towards the end of February, Salmon and Schweikert began to distance themselves from the race, with State Senator Kelli Ward revealing that she was considering a run.

McCain officially announced on April 7, 2015, that he was running for re-election.

Candidates

Declared

• John McCain, incumbent Senator
• Alex Meluskey, printing company owner and FairTax activist
• Clair Van Steenwyk, talk radio host, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate for AZ-08 in 2014
• Kelli Ward, physician, former State Senator

Withdrawn

• David Pizer, businessman

Potential

• Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona
• John Shadegg, former U.S. Representative
• Grant Woods, former Arizona Attorney General

Declined

• Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of Arizona
• Trent Franks, U.S. Representative
• Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative
• Christine Jones, former Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for Go Daddy and candidate for Governor in 2014 (running for AZ-05)
• Martha McSally, U.S. Representative
• Matt Salmon, U.S. Representative
• David Schweikert, U.S. Representative

Endorsements

John McCain
Individuals John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations Organizations United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce

Alex Meluskey
Individuals Lori Klein, former State Senator

Kelli Ward

Individuals Sylvia Allen, President pro tempore of the Arizona Senate Nancy Barto, State Senator Dave Farnsworth, State Senator John Fillmore, former State Representative Mark Finchem, State Representative Jim Gilchrist, co-founder and President of the Minuteman Project Gail Griffin, State Senator Michael Johns, former White House speechwriter, former Heritage Foundation policy analyst and Tea Party activist Anthony Kern, State Representative Vince Leach, State Representative Mark Levin, conservative radio host Richard Mack, former Graham County Sheriff, candidate for TX-21 in 2012 and Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006 Charles Main, Arlington Former Arlington Elementry School Board President Al Melvin, former State Senator and candidate for Governor in 2014 Tom Morrissey, former Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party and 2014 State Senate candidate Jill Norgaard, State Representative Russell Pearce, former President of the Arizona Senate Warren Petersen, State Representative Carl Seel, former State Representative Steve Smith, State Senator Emilena Turley, Queen Creek Town Council member Organizations Americans for Legal Immigration (ALIPAC) Gun Owners of America

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John McCain	Kelli Ward	Clair Van Steenwyk	Alex Meluskey	David Pizer	Scott McBean	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 13–15, 2016	443	± 4.7%	39%	26%	2%	4%	—	3%	—	27%
Behavior Research Center	January 6–17, 2016	398	± 4.1%	47%	11%	1%	1%	1%	—	—	39%
Behavior Research Center	November 7–10, 2015	300	± 4.7%	41%	11%	—	—	—	—	—	45%
Gravis Marketing	August 15–18, 2015	844	± 3.4%	36%	45%	—	—	—	—	—	20%
Public Policy Polling	May 1–3, 2015	300	± 5.7%	44%	31%	—	—	—	—	—	25%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Leonard Clark, teacher, State House candidate in 2002, 2004, and 2008 and Green Party nominee for AZ-03 in 2010
• Ann Kirkpatrick, U.S. Representative

Withdrawn

• Richard Sherzan, retired administrative law judge and former Iowa State Representative

Potential

• Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012
• Fred DuVal, former Chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents and nominee for Governor in 2014
• Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative
• Phil Gordon, former Mayor of Phoenix
• Mark Kelly, retired astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords
• Janet Napolitano, President of the University of California System, former Secretary of Homeland Security and former Governor of Arizona
• Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix
• Nan Walden, businesswoman, attorney and former chief of staff to Senator Bill Bradley

Endorsements

Ann Kirkpatrick
U.S. Senators Dennis DeConcini, Arizona (former) Kirsten Gillibrand, New York U.S. Representatives Ron Barber, Arizona (former) Harry Mitchell, Arizona (former) Ed Pastor, Arizona (former) Organizations Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee EMILY's List

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	May 19, 2016
Daily Kos	Lean R	April 2, 2016
Roll Call	Likely R	April 2, 2016
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	March 25, 2016

Polling

With McCain

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John McCain (R)	Richard Carmona (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 1–3, 2015	600	± 4%	40%	34%	—	25%
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	35%	41%	—	24%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John McCain (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 1–3, 2015	600	± 4%	40%	36%	—	24%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John McCain (R)	Gabrielle Giffords (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	35%	42%	—	23%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John McCain (R)	Ann Kirkpatrick (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 13–15, 2016	896	± 3.3%	42%	36%	—	23%
Behavior Research Center	April 4–11, 2016	564	± 4.2%	42%	42%	—	16%
The Merrill Poll	March 7–11, 2016	701	± 3.7%	41%	40%	3%	16%
Behavior Research Center	January 6–17, 2016	590	± 4.1%	38%	37%	—	25%
Strategies 360	December 4–9, 2015	504	± 4.4%	51%	36%	—	13%
Behavior Research Center	October 24–November 5, 2015	577	± 3.8%	37%	31%	—	32%
Gravis Marketing	August 13–16, 2015	1,433	± 2.6%	48%	35%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	May 1–3, 2015	600	± 4%	42%	36%	—	23%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John McCain (R)	Janet Napolitano (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	44%	36%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John McCain (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 1–3, 2015	600	± 4%	42%	36%	—	22%

With Jones

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Christine Jones (R)	Richard Carmona (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 1–3, 2015	600	± 4%	36%	42%	—	22%

With Ward

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kelli Ward (R)	Ann Kirkpatrick (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 13–15, 2016	896	± 3.3%	37%	35%	—	28%
Gravis Marketing	August 13–16, 2015	1,433	± 2.6%	43%	38%	—	19%
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kelli Ward (R)	Richard Carmona (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 1–3, 2015	600	± 4%	36%	39%	—	26%

External links

• John McCain (R) for Senate
• Kelli Ward (R) for Senate
• Alex Meluskey (R) for Senate
• Clair Van Steenwyk (R) for Senate
• Leonard Clark (D) for Senate
• Ann Kirkpatrick (D) for Senate