2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election

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For the other congressional special election held concurrently, see 2022 New York's 23rd congressional district special election.
2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election
← 2020 August 23, 2022 November 2022 →
New York's 19th congressional district
Turnout 27.16%[1]
  x150px x150px
Nominee Pat Ryan Marc Molinaro
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Popular vote 66,088 63,010
Percentage 51.2% 48.8%
200px
Results by county
Ryan:      50–60%      60–70%
Molinaro:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Antonio Delgado
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Representative

Pat Ryan
Democratic

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The 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election was a special election held on August 23, 2022.[2] The seat became vacant after incumbent Democratic representative Antonio Delgado resigned on May 25, 2022, to become lieutenant governor of New York.[3][4] Democratic nominee Pat Ryan won a slight victory over Republican nominee Marc Molinaro in what was seen as an upset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election.[5]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Nominee

Declined

Republican Party

Nominee

Endorsements

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Tossup May 5, 2022
Inside Elections[18] Tossup July 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Lean R (flip) May 11, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary

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Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Pat
Ryan (D)		 Marc
Molinaro (R)		 Undecided
Data for Progress (D) August 17–22, 2022 1,222 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 53% 2%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[upper-alpha 1] August 6–8, 2022 480 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 46% 11%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[upper-alpha 2] July 26–28, 2022 407 (LV) ± 4.9% 40% 50% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] June 29–30, 2022 581 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 43% 16%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[upper-alpha 2] June 16–20, 2022 505 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 52% 10%

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Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[upper-alpha 1] August 6–8, 2022 480 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 45% 12%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022
Candidate Amount raised Amount spent Cash on hand
Marc Molinaro (R) $1,593,762 $993,626 $600,136
Pat Ryan (D) $1,582,369 $1,265,848 $316,522
Source: OpenSecrets[20]

Results

Pat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins in Ulster County. Ryan overperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising.[21][22] Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the 2022 House election.[23]

2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election[24][1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Pat Ryan 58,636 45.39% –2.61
Working Families Pat Ryan 7,452 5.77% –0.78
Total Pat Ryan 66,088 51.15% –3.64
Republican Marc Molinaro 52,514 40.65% –2.55
Conservative Marc Molinaro 10,496 8.12% N/A
Total Marc Molinaro 63,010 48.77% +5.57
Write-in 96 0.07% N/A
Total votes 129,194 100.00%
Turnout 129,328 27.16%
Registered electors 476,134
Democratic hold
By county
County Pat Ryan
Democratic		 Marc Molinaro
Republican		 Write-in Margin Total
votes		 Turnout
# % # % # % # %
Broome (part) 81 30.00 189 70.00 0 0.00 -108 -40.00 270 18.90
Columbia 9,026 57.35 6,704 42.60 8 0.05 2,322 14.75 15,738 32.71
Delaware 3,033 41.42 4,287 58.55 2 0.03 -1,254 -17.13 7,322 24.85
Dutchess (part) 12,257 48.44 13,030 51.49 17 0.07 -773 -3.05 25,304 31.07
Greene 3,632 39.21 5,626 60.74 4 0.04 -1,994 -21.53 9,262 28.67
Montgomery (part) 440 36.48 766 63.52 0 0.00 -326 -27.03 1,206 14.16
Otsego 4,153 48.26 4,434 51.52 19 0.22 -281 -3.27 8,606 24.23
Rensselaer (part) 3,901 45.13 4,739 54.83 3 0.04 -838 -9.70 8,643 18.51
Schoharie 1,642 34.05 3,176 65.85 5 0.10 -1,534 -31.81 4,823 24.27
Sullivan 3,881 42.72 5,196 57.19 8 0.09 -1,315 -14.47 9,085 18.84
Ulster 24,042 61.75 14,863 38.17 30 0.08 9,179 23.58 38,935 31.35
Totals 66,088 51.15 63,010 48.77 96 0.07 3,078 2.38 129,194 27.16
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 This poll was conducted in-house by and for the DCCC
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 This poll was sponsored by Freedom Council USA
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Ryan's campaign and analyzed by Global Strategy Group

References

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