2020 United States Senate election in Texas
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The general election for the 2020 United States Senate in Texas will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the State of Texas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is running for reelection to a fourth term.
Contents
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Eliminated in the primary
- Virgil Bierschwale, U.S. Navy veteran, software developer, realtor[2]
- John Anthony Castro, attorney, author, businessman, entrepreneur[3][4][5][6][7]
- Dwayne Stovall, bridge construction contractor, businessman[8]
- Mark Yancey, businessman, Attacca International Executive, former owner of the Dallas Wings basketball team[9][10]
Declined
- Pat Fallon, state senator[11]
- Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas[12] (endorsed John Cornyn)[13]
- Allen West, former U.S. Representative for Florida's 22nd congressional district[14] (running for state party chair)[15]
Endorsements
John Cornyn |
---|
|
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Virgil Bierschwale |
John Anthony Castro |
John Cornyn |
Dwayne Stovall |
Mark Yancey |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Texas at St Tyler/Dallas News | January 21–30, 2020 | 445 (LV) | ± 4.65% | <1% | 5% | 62% | 3% | 1% | 30% |
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 1] | January 16–21, 2020 | 687 (LV) | – | 1% | 0% | 75% | 2% | 1% | 22% |
Results
Republican primary results[16] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 1,470,669 | 76.04% | |
Republican | Dwayne Stovall | 231,104 | 11.95% | |
Republican | Mark Yancey | 124,864 | 6.46% | |
Republican | John Anthony Castro | 86,916 | 4.49% | |
Republican | Virgil Bierschwale | 20,494 | 1.06% | |
Total votes | 1,934,047 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- MJ Hegar, retired United States Air Force Major, businesswoman, author, teacher, and Democratic Party nominee for Texas's 31st congressional district in 2018[17]
Eliminated in the runoff
- Royce West, state senator, former President Pro Tempore of the Texas Senate, attorney[18][19]
Eliminated in the primary
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and author[20]
- Annie "Mamá" Garcia, attorney, small-business owner, and non-profit founder[21]
- Amanda Edwards, Houston City Councillor[22]
- Chris Bell, former U.S. Representative for Texas's 25th congressional district, nominee for Governor of Texas in 2006 and candidate for Mayor of Houston in 2015[23]
- Sema Hernandez, organizer for the Poor People's Campaign and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[24]
- Michael Cooper, pastor and candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Texas in 2018[25]
- Victor Hugo Harris, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel[26][27]
- Adrian Ocegueda, financial analyst and candidate for Governor of Texas in 2018[17]
- Jack Daniel Foster, Jr., educator[28]
- D.R. Hunter, retiree[29]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Joaquín Castro, incumbent U.S. Representative for Texas's 20th congressional district[34]
- Julián Castro, former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, former Mayor of San Antonio and former 2020 presidential candidate[35]
- Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. Representative for Texas's 16th congressional district, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and former 2020 presidential candidate[36]
Endorsements
MJ Hegar |
---|
|
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez (eliminated) |
---|
|
Amanda Edwards (eliminated) |
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|
First round
Debates
Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MJ Hegar |
Royce West |
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez |
Annie Garcia |
Amanda Edwards | Chris Bell | Sema Hernandez |
Michael Cooper |
Victor Hugo Harris |
Adrian Ocegueda |
Jack Daniel Foster, Jr. |
D.R. Hunter |
|||
KHOU-11 | February 18, 2020 | [74] | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Absent |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
Chris Bell |
Joaquín Castro |
Wendy Davis |
Amanda Edwards |
Annie Garcia |
MJ Hegar |
Sema Hernandez |
Beto O'Rourke |
Cristina Ramirez |
Royce West |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBC News/Marist | February 23–27, 2020 | 556 (LV) | ± 5.3% | – | 5% | – | – | 7% | – | 16% | 5% | – | 9% | 8% | 5%[lower-alpha 2] | 34% |
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune | January 31 – February 9, 2020 | 575 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] | ± 4.09% | – | 7% | – | – | 6% | 5% | 22% | 5% | – | 9% | 6% | 40%[lower-alpha 4] | – |
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News | January 21–30, 2020 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | – | 5% | – | – | 4% | 6% | 9% | 4% | – | 4% | 6% | 12%[lower-alpha 5] | 52% |
Data for Progress[1][upper-alpha 2] | January 16–21, 2020 | 684 (LV) | ± 6.5% | – | 8% | – | – | 3% | 4% | 18% | 3% | – | 13% | 12% | 4%[lower-alpha 6] | 34%[lower-alpha 7] |
Texas Lyceum | January 10–19, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.89% | – | 5% | – | – | 6% | 4% | 11% | 5% | – | 7% | 8% | 35%[lower-alpha 8] | 19% |
Filing deadline, by which Allred had not declared his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Annie Garcia announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke announces he will not run after end of presidential campaign[75] | ||||||||||||||||
Beacon Research (D) | November 9–21, 2019 | 408 (LV) | – | – | 4% | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 58% | – | 13% | – | – |
University of Texas at Tyler | November 5–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | – | 7% | – | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | 9% | 8% | 7% | 52% |
University of Texas/Texas Tribune | October 18–29, 2019 | 541 (RV) | ± 4.21% | – | 3% | – | – | 0% | – | 12% | 6% | – | 4% | 5% | 13%[lower-alpha 9] | 57% |
University of Texas/Texas Tribune | August 29 – September 8, 2019 | 550 (RV) | ± 4.17% | – | 2% | – | – | 2% | – | 11% | 3% | – | 3% | 5% | 2%[lower-alpha 10] | 66% |
Ragnar Research | September 3–5, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | 9% | – | – | 10% | – | 12% | – | – | 10% | 10% | – | 49% |
Ramirez announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College/Dallas Morning News | August 1–3, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 6.6% | – | – | – | 5.2% | 9.9% | – | – | – | 7.9% | 19.1%[lower-alpha 11] | 51.1% |
West announces his candidacy and Davis announces a 2020 House bid, confirming she will not run for US Senate | ||||||||||||||||
Edwards announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Bell announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Joaquín Castro announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
Hegar announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Change Research | April 18–22, 2019 | 1,578 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 6%[lower-alpha 12] | – | 56% | – | 1% | – | 4% | – | – | – | 3% | 31%[lower-alpha 13] | – |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] | March 5–7, 2019 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 42% | 19% | – | – | 4% | 2% | – | – | – | 4%[lower-alpha 14] | 29% |
Results
Democratic primary results[16] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | MJ Hegar | 417,160 | 22.31% | |
Democratic | Royce West | 274,074 | 14.66% | |
Democratic | Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez | 246,659 | 13.19% | |
Democratic | Annie "Mamá" Garcia | 191,900 | 10.27% | |
Democratic | Amanda Edwards | 189,624 | 10.14% | |
Democratic | Chris Bell | 159,751 | 8.55% | |
Democratic | Sema Hernandez | 137,892 | 7.38% | |
Democratic | Michael Cooper | 92,463 | 4.95% | |
Democratic | Victor Hugo Harris | 59,710 | 3.19% | |
Democratic | Adrian Ocegueda | 41,566 | 2.22% | |
Democratic | Jack Daniel Foster, Jr. | 31,718 | 1.70% | |
Democratic | D.R. Hunter | 26,902 | 1.44% | |
Total votes | 1,869,419 | 100.0% |
Runoff
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
MJ Hegar |
Royce West |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TargetPoint[upper-alpha 4] | July 8, 2020 | 830 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 35% | – | 26% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler | June 29 – July 7, 2020 | 829 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 22% | 11% | 32% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler | April 18–27, 2020 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 44% |
Data for Progress[2][upper-alpha 2] | January 16–21, 2020 | 684 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 48% | 19% | – | 33% |
Ragnar Research | September 3–5, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 26% | 24% | – | 50% |
Debates
Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|
MJ Hegar |
Royce West |
|||
KXAN-TV | June 6, 2020 | [76] | Present | Present |
KVUE | June 29, 2020 | [77] | Present | Present |
Hypothetical polling
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Results
Democratic primary runoff results[16] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | MJ Hegar | 502,516 | 52.24% | |
Democratic | Royce West | 459,457 | 47.76% | |
Total votes | 961,973 | 100.0% |
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Nominee
- Kerry McKennon, Libertarian nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Texas in 2018[78][79]
Withdrawn
- Wes Benedict, former national Executive Director of the Libertarian Party[80]
- Rhett Rosenquest Smith, Libertarian nominee for the Precinct 2 Bexar County Justice of the Peace in 2020 and Libertarian nominee for [[Texas's 11th congressional district in 2018[81]
Green Party
Nominee
People Over Politics Party
Withdrawn
Human Rights Party
Withdrawn
Independents
Declared
- Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla, retired teacher and candidate for Austin city council in 2014 (as a write-in candidate)[84][83]
Withdrawn
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[86] | Likely R | August 17, 2020 |
Inside Elections[87] | Lean R | September 18, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[88] | Likely R | August 5, 2020 |
Daily Kos[89] | Likely R | August 31, 2020 |
Politico[90] | Lean R | September 9, 2020 |
RCP[91] | Lean R | September 17, 2020 |
Niskanen[92] | Likely R | September 15, 2020 |
DDHQ[93] | Likely R | September 16, 2020 |
538[94] | Likely R | September 18, 2020 |
Endorsements
John Cornyn (R) |
---|
|
Polling
Graphical Summary
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Aggregate polls
John Cornyn vs. M.J Hegar | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | John Cornyn | MJ Hegar | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 15] | Margin |
270 To Win | September 6 – 22, 2020 | September 23, 2020 | 43.5% | 37.0% | Cornyn +6.5 | |
Real Clear Politics | July 16, 2020 – September 18, 2020 | September 23, 2020 | 44.0% | 35.7% | Cornyn +8.3 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
MJ Hegar (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 16–22, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 37% | 6%[lower-alpha 16] | 14%[lower-alpha 17] |
Quinnipiac University | September 17–21, 2020 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 7% |
Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 2,616 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 45% | 39% | – | – |
YouGov/CBS | September 15–18, 2020 | 1,129 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | 3%[lower-alpha 18] | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] | September 1–2, 2020 | 743 (V) | – | 44% | 40% | – | 15% |
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News | August 28 – September 2, 2020 | 897 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 28% | 5%[lower-alpha 19] | 28% |
1,141 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 34% | 24% | 6%[lower-alpha 20] | 36% | ||
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[upper-alpha 6] | August 20–25, 2020 | 906 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 42% | – | 11% |
Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 7] | August 20–25, 2020 | 2,295 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 15% |
YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University’s Baker Institute | August 4–13, 2020 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 5%[lower-alpha 21] | 8% |
Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 2,576 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 38% | 4%[lower-alpha 22] | 14% |
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 8] | July 25–29, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
Quinnipiac University | July 16–20, 2020 | 880 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 38% | 3%[lower-alpha 23] | 13% |
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 9] | July 16–20, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 37% | 14%[lower-alpha 24] | 2% |
YouGov/CBS | July 7–10, 2020 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 36% | 5%[lower-alpha 25] | 15% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler | June 29 – July 7, 2020 | 1,677 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 42% | 29% | 5% | 22% |
Public Policy Polling | June 24–25, 2020 | 729 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
FOX News | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | 6%[lower-alpha 26] | 12% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler | April 18–27, 2020 | 1,183 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 37% | 24% | 6% | 34% |
NBC News/Marist | February 23–27, 2020 | 2,409 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 41% | 1% | 10% |
Beacon Research (D) | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 44% | 30% | – | 26% |
Emerson College | April 25–28, 2019 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 29% | 12% | 16%[lower-alpha 27] | 44% |
Hypothetical polling
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | {{{change}}} | |||
Democratic | MJ Hegar | {{{change}}} | |||
Green | David Collins | {{{change}}} | |||
Libertarian | Kerry McKennon | {{{change}}} | |||
Independent | Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla (write-in) | {{{change}}} | |||
Total votes | 100.00% |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
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- Additional candidates and voter samples
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References
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Further reading
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External links
- Elections Division at the Texas Secretary of State official website
- Texas at Ballotpedia
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- Official campaign websites
- John Cornyn (R) for Senate
- MJ Hegar (D) for Senate
- Kerry McKennon (L) for Senate
- Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla (I) for Senate
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- ↑ https://momsdemandaction.org/everytown-for-gun-safety-action-fund-endorses-mj-hegar-for-u-s-senate-in-texas/
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- ↑ https://northdallasgazette.com/2020/04/20/royce-west-receives-endorsement-of-ambassador-moseley-braun-in-texas-us-senate-race/
- ↑ https://texasmetronews.com/news/congresswoman-maxine-waters-endorses-royce-west-for-u-s-senate-press-release/
- ↑ https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/05/05/progressive-group-endorses-royce-west-for-us-senate-while-pete-buttigieg-backs-mj-hegar/
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ https://northdallasgazette.com/2020/04/24/royce-west-endorsed-by-texas-american-federation-of-teachers-in-us-senate-race/
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 95.00 95.01 95.02 95.03 95.04 95.05 95.06 95.07 95.08 95.09 95.10 95.11 95.12 95.13 95.14 95.15 95.16 95.17 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ https://momsdemandaction.org/everytown-for-gun-safety-action-fund-endorses-mj-hegar-for-u-s-senate-in-texas/
- ↑ https://hsdems.org/texasfocus
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 109.0 109.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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