2020 United States Senate election in Texas

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2020 United States Senate election in Texas

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
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Nominee John Cornyn MJ Hegar
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

John Cornyn
Republican



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The general election for the 2020 United States Senate in Texas will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the State of Texas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is running for reelection to a fourth term.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

  • Virgil Bierschwale, U.S. Navy veteran, software developer, realtor[2]
  • John Anthony Castro, attorney, author, businessman, entrepreneur[3][4][5][6][7]
  • Dwayne Stovall, bridge construction contractor, businessman[8]
  • Mark Yancey, businessman, Attacca International Executive, former owner of the Dallas Wings basketball team[9][10]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Virgil
Bierschwale
John
Anthony
Castro
John
Cornyn
Dwayne
Stovall
Mark
Yancey
Undecided
University of Texas at St Tyler/Dallas News January 21–30, 2020 445 (LV) ± 4.65% <1% 5% 62% 3% 1% 30%
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 1] January 16–21, 2020 687 (LV) 1% 0% 75% 2% 1% 22%

Results

File:2020TXSENGOP.svg
Results by county
Cornyn
  •   Cornyn—80–90%
  •   Cornyn—70–80%
  •   Cornyn—60–70%
  •   Cornyn—50–60%
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent) 1,470,669 76.04%
Republican Dwayne Stovall 231,104 11.95%
Republican Mark Yancey 124,864 6.46%
Republican John Anthony Castro 86,916 4.49%
Republican Virgil Bierschwale 20,494 1.06%
Total votes 1,934,047 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the runoff

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

First round

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
MJ
Hegar
Royce
West
Cristina
Tzintzún
Ramirez
Annie
Garcia
Amanda Edwards Chris Bell Sema
Hernandez
Michael
Cooper
Victor Hugo
Harris
Adrian
Ocegueda
Jack Daniel
Foster, Jr.
D.R.
Hunter
KHOU-11 February 18, 2020 [74] Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Absent

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Colin
Allred
Chris
Bell
Joaquín
Castro
Wendy
Davis
Amanda
Edwards
Annie
Garcia
MJ
Hegar
Sema
Hernandez
Beto
O'Rourke
Cristina
Ramirez
Royce
West
Other Undecided
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 556 (LV) ± 5.3% 5% 7% 16% 5% 9% 8% 5%[lower-alpha 2] 34%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune January 31 – February 9, 2020 575 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] ± 4.09% 7% 6% 5% 22% 5% 9% 6% 40%[lower-alpha 4]
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News January 21–30, 2020 414 (LV) ± 4.8% 5% 4% 6% 9% 4% 4% 6% 12%[lower-alpha 5] 52%
Data for Progress[1][upper-alpha 2] January 16–21, 2020 684 (LV) ± 6.5% 8% 3% 4% 18% 3% 13% 12% 4%[lower-alpha 6] 34%[lower-alpha 7]
Texas Lyceum January 10–19, 2020 401 (LV) ± 4.89% 5% 6% 4% 11% 5% 7% 8% 35%[lower-alpha 8] 19%
December 9, 2019 Filing deadline, by which Allred had not declared his candidacy
December 6, 2019 Annie Garcia announces her candidacy
December 5, 2019 O'Rourke announces he will not run after end of presidential campaign[75]
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 408 (LV) 4% 6% 6% 58% 13%
University of Texas at Tyler November 5–14, 2019 427 (RV) ± 4.7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 52%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 18–29, 2019 541 (RV) ± 4.21% 3% 0% 12% 6% 4% 5% 13%[lower-alpha 9] 57%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune August 29 – September 8, 2019 550 (RV) ± 4.17% 2% 2% 11% 3% 3% 5% 2%[lower-alpha 10] 66%
Ragnar Research September 3–5, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 9% 10% 12% 10% 10% 49%
August 12, 2019 Ramirez announces her candidacy
Emerson College/Dallas Morning News August 1–3, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 6.6% 5.2% 9.9% 7.9% 19.1%[lower-alpha 11] 51.1%
July 22, 2019 West announces his candidacy and Davis announces a 2020 House bid, confirming she will not run for US Senate
July 18, 2019 Edwards announces her candidacy
July 3, 2019 Bell announces his candidacy
May 1, 2019 Joaquín Castro announces he will not run
April 23, 2019 Hegar announces her candidacy
Change Research April 18–22, 2019 1,578 (LV) ± 2.5% 6%[lower-alpha 12] 56% 1% 4% 3% 31%[lower-alpha 13]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] March 5–7, 2019 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 19% 4% 2% 4%[lower-alpha 14] 29%

Results

File:2020TXSEND.svg
Initial round results by county
Hegar
  •   Hegar—60–70%
  •   Hegar—50–60%
  •   Hegar—40–50%
  •   Hegar—30–40%
  •   Hegar—20–30%
  •   Hegar—<20%
Tie
  •   Tie
West
  •   West—<20%
  •   West—20–30%
  •   West—30–40%
  •   West—40–50%
Ramirez
  •   Ramirez—<20%
  •   Ramirez—20–30%
  •   Ramirez—30–40%
  •   Ramirez—40–50%
  •   Ramirez—50–60%
Garcia
  •   Garcia—<20%
  •   Garcia—20–30%
  •   Garcia—30–40%
  •   Garcia—100%
Edwards
  •   Edwards—<20%
  •   Edwards—20–30%
  •   Edwards—30–40%
Bell
  •   Bell—<20%
  •   Bell—20–30%
  •   Bell—30–40%
  •   Bell—40–50%
Hernandez
  •   Hernandez—<20%
  •   Hernandez—20–30%
  •   Hernandez—30–40%
Cooper
  •   Cooper—<20%
  •   Cooper—20–30%
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic MJ Hegar 417,160 22.31%
Democratic Royce West 274,074 14.66%
Democratic Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez 246,659 13.19%
Democratic Annie "Mamá" Garcia 191,900 10.27%
Democratic Amanda Edwards 189,624 10.14%
Democratic Chris Bell 159,751 8.55%
Democratic Sema Hernandez 137,892 7.38%
Democratic Michael Cooper 92,463 4.95%
Democratic Victor Hugo Harris 59,710 3.19%
Democratic Adrian Ocegueda 41,566 2.22%
Democratic Jack Daniel Foster, Jr. 31,718 1.70%
Democratic D.R. Hunter 26,902 1.44%
Total votes 1,869,419 100.0%

Runoff

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
MJ
Hegar
Royce
West
Other Undecided
TargetPoint[upper-alpha 4] July 8, 2020 830 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 35% 26%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler June 29 – July 7, 2020 829 (LV) ± 3.4% 35% 22% 11% 32%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler April 18–27, 2020 447 (RV) ± 4.6% 32% 16% 7% 44%
Data for Progress[2][upper-alpha 2] January 16–21, 2020 684 (LV) ± 6.5% 48% 19% 33%
Ragnar Research September 3–5, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 26% 24% 50%

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
MJ
Hegar
Royce
West
KXAN-TV June 6, 2020 [76] Present Present
KVUE June 29, 2020 [77] Present Present
Hypothetical polling
with MJ Hegar and Chris Bell
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
MJ
Hegar
Chris
Bell
Undecided
Ragnar Research September 3–5, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 28% 21% 50%
with MJ Hegar and Amanda Edwards
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
MJ
Hegar
Amanda
Edwards
Undecided
Data for Progress[3][upper-alpha 2] January 16–21, 2020 684 (LV) ± 6.5% 42% 16% 42%
with MJ Hegar and Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
MJ
Hegar
Cristina
Ramirez
Undecided
Data for Progress[4][upper-alpha 2] January 16–21, 2020 684 (LV) ± 6.5% 32% 33% 35%

Results

File:Texas U.S. Senate Democratic primary runoff, 2020.svg
Runoff results by county
Hegar
  •   Hegar—>90%
  •   Hegar—80–90%
  •   Hegar—70–80%
  •   Hegar—60–70%
  •   Hegar—50–60%
Tie
  •   Tie
West
  •   West—50–60%
  •   West—60–70%
  •   West—70–80%
  •   West—>90%
No vote
  •   No vote
Democratic primary runoff results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic MJ Hegar 502,516 52.24%
Democratic Royce West 459,457 47.76%
Total votes 961,973 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn
  • Wes Benedict, former national Executive Director of the Libertarian Party[80]
  • Rhett Rosenquest Smith, Libertarian nominee for the Precinct 2 Bexar County Justice of the Peace in 2020 and Libertarian nominee for [[Texas's 11th congressional district in 2018[81]

Green Party

Nominee

  • David B. Collins, info tech trainer and Green nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[82][83]

People Over Politics Party

Withdrawn

Human Rights Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

  • Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla, retired teacher and candidate for Austin city council in 2014 (as a write-in candidate)[84][83]

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[86] Likely R August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[87] Lean R September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[88] Likely R August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[89] Likely R August 31, 2020
Politico[90] Lean R September 9, 2020
RCP[91] Lean R September 17, 2020
Niskanen[92] Likely R September 15, 2020
DDHQ[93] Likely R September 16, 2020
538[94] Likely R September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Polling

Graphical Summary

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Aggregate polls

John Cornyn vs. M.J Hegar
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated John Cornyn MJ Hegar Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 15] Margin
270 To Win September 6 – 22, 2020 September 23, 2020 43.5% 37.0% Cornyn +6.5
Real Clear Politics July 16, 2020 – September 18, 2020 September 23, 2020 44.0% 35.7% Cornyn +8.3
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Cornyn (R)
MJ
Hegar (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–22, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 37% 6%[lower-alpha 16] 14%[lower-alpha 17]
Quinnipiac University September 17–21, 2020 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% 7%
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 2,616 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 45% 39%
YouGov/CBS September 15–18, 2020 1,129 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 41% 3%[lower-alpha 18] 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] September 1–2, 2020 743 (V) 44% 40% 15%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News August 28 – September 2, 2020 897 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 28% 5%[lower-alpha 19] 28%
1,141 (RV) ± 2.9% 34% 24% 6%[lower-alpha 20] 36%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[upper-alpha 6] August 20–25, 2020 906 (LV) ± 3% 44% 42% 11%
Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 7] August 20–25, 2020 2,295 (LV) ± 2.0% 46% 40% 15%
YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University’s Baker Institute August 4–13, 2020 892 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 37% 5%[lower-alpha 21] 8%
Morning Consult July 24 – August 2, 2020 2,576 (LV) ± 2.0% 44% 38% 4%[lower-alpha 22] 14%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 8] July 25–29, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 43% 13%
Quinnipiac University July 16–20, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 38% 3%[lower-alpha 23] 13%
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 9] July 16–20, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 37% 14%[lower-alpha 24] 2%
YouGov/CBS July 7–10, 2020 1,179 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 36% 5%[lower-alpha 25] 15%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler June 29 – July 7, 2020 1,677 (LV) ± 2.4% 42% 29% 5% 22%
Public Policy Polling June 24–25, 2020 729 (RV) ± 3.6% 42% 35% 23%
FOX News June 20–23, 2020 1,001 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 36% 6%[lower-alpha 26] 12%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler April 18–27, 2020 1,183 (RV) ± 2.9% 37% 24% 6% 34%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 2,409 (RV) ± 2.5% 49% 41% 1% 10%
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) 44% 30% 26%
Emerson College April 25–28, 2019 799 (RV) ± 3.4% 29% 12% 16%[lower-alpha 27] 44%
Hypothetical polling
with Royce West
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Cornyn (R)
Royce
West (D)
Other Undecided
CBS News/YouGov July 7–10, 2020 1,182 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 37% 4%[lower-alpha 28] 15%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler June 29 – July 7, 2020 1,677 (LV) ± 2.4% 43% 28% 6% 23%
FOX News June 20–23, 2020 1,001 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 37% 6%[lower-alpha 29] 11%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler April 18–27, 2020 1,183 (RV) ± 2.85% 35% 24% 7% 34%
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) 45% 33% 22%
with Chris Bell
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Cornyn (R)
Chris
Bell (D)
Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) 45% 30% 25%
with Sema Hernandez
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Cornyn (R)
Sema
Hernandez (D)
Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) 45% 29% 26%
with Beto O'Rourke
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Cornyn (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) 46% 42% 12%
Quinnipiac University February 20–25, 2019 1,222 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 46% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] February 13–14, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 45% 8%
Atlantic Media & Research (R)[upper-alpha 10] January 5–11, 2019 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 37%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Cornyn (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Other Undecided
Univision/UH February 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 41% 16%
Data for Progress January 16–21, 2020 1,486 (LV) 50% 42% 2%[lower-alpha 30] 7%
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) 46% 44% 10%
Univision/UH August 1 – September 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) ± 3.4% 41% 40% 19%
with generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Cornyn (R)
Generic
Opponent
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac September 4–9, 2019 1,410 (RV) ± 3.1% 23% 35%[lower-alpha 31] 43%[lower-alpha 32]
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 18–19, 2020 907 (V) ± 3% 47% 45% 8%

Results

United States Senate election in Texas, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent) {{{change}}}
Democratic MJ Hegar {{{change}}}
Green David Collins {{{change}}}
Libertarian Kerry McKennon {{{change}}}
Independent Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla (write-in) {{{change}}}
Total votes 100.00%

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

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Additional candidates and voter samples

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References

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Further reading

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External links

  • Elections Division at the Texas Secretary of State official website
  • Texas at Ballotpedia
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Official campaign websites
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  43. https://momsdemandaction.org/everytown-for-gun-safety-action-fund-endorses-mj-hegar-for-u-s-senate-in-texas/
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  54. https://northdallasgazette.com/2020/04/20/royce-west-receives-endorsement-of-ambassador-moseley-braun-in-texas-us-senate-race/
  55. https://texasmetronews.com/news/congresswoman-maxine-waters-endorses-royce-west-for-u-s-senate-press-release/
  56. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/05/05/progressive-group-endorses-royce-west-for-us-senate-while-pete-buttigieg-backs-mj-hegar/
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  78. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  79. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  80. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  81. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  82. 82.0 82.1 82.2 82.3 82.4 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  83. 83.0 83.1 83.2 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.6 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  84. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  85. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  86. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  87. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  88. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  89. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  90. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  91. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  92. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  93. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  94. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  95. 95.00 95.01 95.02 95.03 95.04 95.05 95.06 95.07 95.08 95.09 95.10 95.11 95.12 95.13 95.14 95.15 95.16 95.17 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  96. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  97. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  98. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  99. https://momsdemandaction.org/everytown-for-gun-safety-action-fund-endorses-mj-hegar-for-u-s-senate-in-texas/
  100. https://hsdems.org/texasfocus
  101. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  102. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  103. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  104. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  105. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  106. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  107. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  108. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  109. 109.0 109.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  110. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.


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