2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

November 3, 2020

x150px x150px Nominee Mark Warner Daniel Gade Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Mark Warner Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore. In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote defeating former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie by 0.8%. Warner is running for a third term.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. Senator

Republican primary

Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures. The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner. The primary was on June 23.

Candidates

Nominee

• Daniel Gade, college professor and U.S. Army veteran

Eliminated in primary

• Alissa Baldwin, teacher
• Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer

Failed to qualify

• Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor
• Omari Faulkner, business executive, former U.S. State Department official and U.S. Navy reservist
• Roger Franklin
• Victor Williams, attorney and activist

Withdrawn

• Gary Adkins, financial executive
• John Easley, Republican candidate for Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2020
• Scott Taylor, former U.S. Representative for Virginia's 2nd congressional district (running for his former House seat)

Declined

• Nick Freitas, state delegate and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for U.S. House)
• Corey Stewart, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and former chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors

Endorsements

Daniel Gade

National Party Officials Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee U.S. Representatives Randy Forbes, former (VA-04) Elise Stefanik, (NY-21) Scott Rigell, former (Va-02) State Senators Bill Carrico, former (40) Richard Stuart, (28) Jill Vogel. (27) State Delegates Terry Kilgore, (1) Wendell Walker. (23) Individuals Don Bolduc, Brigadier General and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist

Results

File:Virginia Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg

Results by county:

Gade

•   Gade—>90%
•   Gade—80–90%
•   Gade—70–80%
•   Gade—60–70%
•   Gade—50–60%
•   Gade—40–50%

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Daniel Gade	208,754	67.40%
	Republican	Alissa Baldwin	56,165	18.13%
	Republican	Thomas Speciale	44,795	14.46%
Total votes			309,714	100.0%

Independents

Withdrawn

• Mary Knapp
• Aldous Mina, Peace Corps veteran

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	August 17, 2020
Inside Elections	Safe D	September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	August 5, 2020
Daily Kos	Safe D	August 31, 2020
Politico	Likely D	September 9, 2020
RCP	Likely D	September 17, 2020
Niskanen	Safe D	September 15, 2020
DDHQ	Safe D	September 16, 2020
538	Safe D	September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Daniel Gade (R)

National party officials Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee U.S. Representatives Randy Forbes, former (R- Virginia-04) Elise Stefanik, (R-NY-21) Scott Rigell, former (R-Virginia-02) State Senators Bill Carrico, former (R-40) Richard Stuart, (R-28) Jill Vogel. (R-27) State Delegates Terry Kilgore, (R-1) Wendell Walker. (R-23) Individuals Don Bolduc, Brigadier General and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Warner (D)	Daniel Gade (R)	Other/ Undecided
Christopher Newport University	September 9–21, 2020	796 (LV)	± 3.9%	52%	39%	9%
Virginia Commonwealth University	August 28 – September 7, 2020	692 (LV)	± 6.22%	55%	38%	6
Roanoke College	August 9–22, 2020	566 (LV)	± 4.1%	55%	34%	10%

Hypothetical polling

with Mark Warner and Generic Republican Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Mark Warner (D) Generic Republican Other Undecided Roanoke College May 3–16, 2020 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 31% – – with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Generic Democrat Generic Republican Other Undecided Ipsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019 636 (A) ± 4.0% 43% 26% 2% 23%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2020

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Mark Warner (incumbent)			{{{change}}}
	Republican	Daniel Gade			{{{change}}}
Total votes				100.00%

External links

Official campaign websites

• Daniel Gade (R) for Senate
• Mary Knapp (I) for Senate
• Aldous Mina (I) for Senate
• Mark Warner (D) for Senate