2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
<templatestyles src="Module:Hatnote/styles.css"></templatestyles>
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||
|
Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, is running for reelection to a seventh term in office. He faces off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.
The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. Over 973,000 people requested absentee ballots, a far greater number than usual.
Contents
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator[2][3]
Eliminated in primary
- Nicholas Alsager[4]
- Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[4] (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)[5]
- Louis Grider, truck driver[4]
- Neren James[4]
- Kenneth Lowndes[4]
- Wesley Morgan, former state representative[6]
Withdrawn
Results
Republican primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 342,660 | 82.80% | |
Republican | Wesley Morgan | 25,588 | 6.18% | |
Republican | Louis Grider | 13,771 | 3.33% | |
Republican | Paul John Frangedakis | 11,957 | 2.89% | |
Republican | Neren James | 10,693 | 2.58% | |
Republican | Kenneth Lowndes | 5,548 | 1.34% | |
Republican | Nicholas Alsager | 3,603 | 0.87% | |
Total votes | 413,820 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Amy McGrath, former U.S. Marine fighter pilot and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018[10][11]
Eliminated in primary
- Charles Booker, state representative[12][13]
- Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine[14]
- Maggie Joe Hilliard[4]
- Andrew Maynard[4]
- Eric Rothmuller, small business owner[15]
- John R. Sharpensteen[4]
- Bennie J. Smith, local business owner[16]
- Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky[17]
Withdrawn
- Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[18] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[19] (remained on ballot)
- Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[20] (endorsed Charles Booker)[21]
- Joshua Paul Edwards[22][7]
- Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[8][7]
- Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[23][7]
Declined
- Rocky Adkins, former Minority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[24]
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former Attorney General of Kentucky, and son of former Governor Steve Beshear[25][26][27]
- Steve Beshear, former Governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996[25]
- Jack Conway, former Attorney General of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015[25]
- Adam Edelen, former State Auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[25]
- Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[28]
- Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former Mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[29]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[25] (endorsed Booker)
- Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)[30][31]
Campaign
There were debates on March 5, 2020[32][33] and June 1, 2020.[34][35]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Charles Booker |
Amy McGrath |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 1] | June 10–22, 2020 | 556 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 10% |
Garin-Hart-Yang[upper-alpha 2] | June 16–18, 2020 | – | – | 32% | 42% | – | – |
Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 421 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 44% | 36% | 9%[lower-alpha 2] | 11% |
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[upper-alpha 3] | June 8–12, 2020 | 313 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 39% | 49% | 6%[lower-alpha 3] | 3% |
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[upper-alpha 3] | May 2020 | –[lower-alpha 4] | – | 13% | 62% | – | – |
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[upper-alpha 3] | April 2020 | –[lower-alpha 4] | – | 11% | 62% | – | – |
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[upper-alpha 3] | January 2020 | –[lower-alpha 4] | – | 7% | 65% | – | – |
Endorsements
Charles Booker |
---|
|
Mike Broihier |
---|
|
Amy McGrath |
---|
|
Results
Democratic primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | Amy McGrath | 247,037 | 45.41% | |
Democratic | Charles Booker | 231,888 | 42.62% | |
Democratic | Mike Broihier | 27,175 | 4.99% | |
Democratic | Mary Ann Tobin | 11,108 | 2.04% | |
Democratic | Maggie Joe Hilliard | 6,224 | 1.14% | |
Democratic | Andrew Maynard | 5,974 | 1.10% | |
Democratic | Bennie J. Smith | 5,040 | 0.93% | |
Democratic | Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) | 3,629 | 0.67% | |
Democratic | Eric Rothmuller | 2,995 | 0.55% | |
Democratic | John R. Sharpensteen | 2,992 | 0.55% | |
Total votes | 544,062 | 100.0% |
Other candidates
Libertarian primary
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky does not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and will hold its privately-operated primary, open to those who are and remain registered to vote as a Libertarian from January 1 to present in the state of Kentucky,[61] on March 8, 2020.[62] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[63]
Nominee
- Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[64]
Reform Party
Withdrawn
Independents
Declared
- Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary)[5]
- Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate)[5]
Withdrawn
- Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for President in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65[66][7]
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[67] | Likely R | August 17, 2020 |
Inside Elections[68] | Safe R | September 18, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] | Likely R | August 5, 2020 |
Daily Kos[70] | Safe R | August 31, 2020 |
Politico[71] | Likely R | September 9, 2020 |
RCP[72] | Likely R | September 17, 2020 |
Niskanen[73] | Likely R | September 15, 2020 |
DDHQ[74] | Likely R | September 16, 2020 |
538[75] | Likely R | September 18, 2020 |
Endorsements
Amy McGrath (D) |
---|
|
Polling
<templatestyles src="Graph:Chart/styles.css"></templatestyles>
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Amy McGrath (D) |
Brad Barron (L) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 746 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 52% | 37% | – | – |
Data for Progress (D) | September 14–19, 2020 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 39% | 3% | 12%[lower-alpha 5] |
Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 41% | – | 5%[lower-alpha 6] |
Quinnipiac University | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 909 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 44% | – | 7%[lower-alpha 7] |
Bluegrass Data (D)[upper-alpha 4] | July 25–29, 2020 | 3,020 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 4% | – |
Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 793 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 36% | – | 12%[lower-alpha 8] |
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 33% | – | 12%[lower-alpha 9] |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | July 7–12, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 7% | 7%[lower-alpha 10] |
Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 33% | 4% | 11%[lower-alpha 11] |
RMG Research[lower-alpha 12] | May 21–24, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | – | 19%[lower-alpha 13] |
Bluegrass Data (D)[upper-alpha 4] | April 7-12, 2020[lower-alpha 14] | 4,000 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 7% | – |
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | January 17–21, 2020 | 1,281 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | January 813, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | June 15–16, 2019 | 1,629 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
Hypothetical polling
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | {{{change}}} | |||
Democratic | Amy McGrath | {{{change}}} | |||
Libertarian | Brad Barron | {{{change}}} | |||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes | 100.0% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
<templatestyles src="Reflist/styles.css" />
Cite error: Invalid <references>
tag; parameter "group" is allowed only.
<references />
, or <references group="..." />
- Voter samples
<templatestyles src="Reflist/styles.css" />
Cite error: Invalid <references>
tag; parameter "group" is allowed only.
<references />
, or <references group="..." />
References
<templatestyles src="Reflist/styles.css" />
Cite error: Invalid <references>
tag; parameter "group" is allowed only.
<references />
, or <references group="..." />
External links
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 54.0 54.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 55.0 55.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 56.0 56.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 57.0 57.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 58.0 58.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 59.0 59.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 60.0 60.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
Cite error: <ref>
tags exist for a group named "lower-alpha", but no corresponding <references group="lower-alpha"/>
tag was found, or a closing </ref>
is missing
Cite error: <ref>
tags exist for a group named "upper-alpha", but no corresponding <references group="upper-alpha"/>
tag was found, or a closing </ref>
is missing